6.11. Growth Scenarios Three growth scenarios were developed for the Core Area to frame the range of possible futures and their transportation implications. Each scenario holds citywide population and employment totals constant, consistent with NCTCOG’s 2050 regional projections; the scenarios differ in how much of that citywide growth is directed to the Central Area and Downtown. This approach reflects the nature of the Core growth strategy: it is not about growing the city faster, but about growing the right way, in the right places. 6.11.1. Scenario Definitions The Baseline 2050 scenario extrapolates NCTCOG’s adopted 2050 Mobility Plan projections and represents a continuation of current trends. Under this scenario, the Central
Area’s share of citywide population would actually decline from 6.2% in 2023 to 5.4% by 2050, and downtown’s employment share would fall from 8.88% to 5.97%, reflecting the pattern of continued auto-oriented growth outpacing core reinvestment. This is not an aspirational scenario; it is a cautionary one. The Course Correction 2050 scenario holds existing population and job shares for the downtown and Central Area constant through 2050, effectively freezing Fort Worth’s current performance relative to its own city rather than allowing further erosion. This scenario represents a modest floor of ambition: maintaining the status quo share of a growing city would still add 13,100 residents and 117,900 jobs to the Central Area. The Acting Our Size (AOS) 2050 scenario is the vision scenario. It reallocates a greater share of citywide growth to the Core Area and Downtown, based
on national benchmarking of what peer cities achieve and grounded in Fort Worth’s current development pipeline and major planning initiatives. Under AOS, the Central Area would grow to nearly 200,000 residents and 400,000 jobs by 2050, with downtown’s population share rising to 1.5% and its employment share to 11.36%. Table 6.4: Central Area Population Sce- narios, 2050 Scenario Total Pop. Added % of City Downtown Pop. Share
Existing 2023 Baseline 2050
74,300 — 6.2% 0.45%
99,100 — 5.4% 0.48%
Course Correction 2050
112,250 +13,100 6.2% 0.48%
Acting Our Size 2050 195,700 +96,500 10.7% 1.50% Table 6.5: Central Area Employment Scenarios, 2050 Scenario Total Emp. Added % of City
Downtown Emp. Share
Existing 2023 Baseline 2050
196,400 —
25.2% 8.88%
211,300 —
16.6% 5.97%
Course Correction 2050
329,200 +117,900 25.8% 9.12%
Acting Our Size 2050 399,400 +188,000 31.3% 11.36%
Figure 6.22: Downtown Fort Worth Share of City Population and Employment by Scenario
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Multimodal Gap Analysis | Fort Worth Master Transportation Plan
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