Master Transportation Plan Finance and Fiscal Forecast
1 Introduction This technical memorandum provides the methodology for development of the revenue forecast. The revenues are primarily directed toward major roadway projects identified for the planning horizon, with focus on the period covering the next several City of Fort Worth bond cycles slated for 2030 and 2034. Two main types of revenue sources providing sustained funding for the transportation program are discussed in the forecast. These sources include proceeds from city debt issuance and other transportation sources received by the city from development growth, intergovernmental, and state and federal transportation funds. 2 Methodology 2.1 Debt Issuance A core source of transportation funding is from the city’s bond program. Every 4 years, the city considers a bond election to maintain and enhance existing infrastructure while promoting fairness and providing mobility and city services to areas experiencing growth. The expenditure authorized in the bond election is funded by General Obligation (GO) Bonds, which are repaid from property tax revenue. City staff develop a list of recommended projects to include in the bond election propositions, and the project list is refined based on feedback from the community and city council. For the financial forecast, city finance department staff provided debt capacity model figures estimating the available property tax revenue for debt service. The model accounts for remaining outstanding bonds issued from past cycles as well as an assumed rate of bond interest and forecasted growth in property tax revenue. 1 The model provided estimates for bond issues for the 2026, 2030, and 2034 bond cycles. Each 4-year bond cycle is comprised of annual debt issuances of varying amounts.
The estimated revenue per bond cycles is as follows: • 2026 bond program: $845 million • 2030 bond program: $498.3 million • 2034 bond program: $566 million • Total: $1.909 billion
These amounts are distributed among six categories prioritized by the community and the council, one of which is for Streets and Mobility Infrastructure Improvements. Of the bond revenue distribution, the Streets and Mobility Infrastructure Improvements category has typically received the majority share, though this share may differ with each bond cycle. Historically, the share for this category ranged 1 The city’s debt capacity model is fluid, and updates are undertaken regularly by the Finance Department as economic conditions change. The figures in this section represent a point in time in the model. For this analysis, bond interest assumed are 6.00%, and property tax revenue is assumed to increase 3.00% annually through 2038, then remain flat.
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