Electricity Asset Management Plan 2019-2029
22 Vector Limited://
Scenarios enable us to derive robust business strategies to respond to disruption by understanding how changes in the input variables affect outcomes to the network, customers and investment requirements. Vector’s scenario planning tool used in the AMP models electricity demand growth for a set of different possible futures. Vector has named the potential scenarios after music genres. They are called Pop, Rock and Symphony. We also refer to two other scenarios - Disco and Indie - which are long-term alternative futures that could materialise after 2030. • Pop is well-established today. The customers steadily adopt new energy technology (mainly EVs and energy efficiency) and the network responds by granularly becoming more intelligent; • Rock is counterfactual to Pop. Customers aggressively adopt new technology, but the network relies primarily on physical assets to meet growing demand. This reliance on traditional technology does not align with the network requirements; • Symphony is where the network proactively facilitates customer engagement and technology uptake, leading to Low Voltage (LV) network and customer integration. Symphony results in the alignment between network requirements which minimise investment and customer investment in non-traditional distributed energy resources
EMBRACING SCENARIO MODELLING TO 2050 There is a strong expectation that customer-side DERs could come to dominate over the next 10 years. Regardless of when, how or if this eventuates, it would have a profound impact on network design, performance and cost. Vector is embracing a scenario modelling to better understand the impact of potential future outcomes. The two largest uncertainties around future demand growth are the speed of the uptake of new customer side technologies, and the network response to such technologies.
POP Both customers and networks steadily transition to support future demand ROCK Customers aggressively adopt new tech and the network relies primarily on physical assets to meet growing demand SYMPHONY The network actively facilitates customer engagement and technology uptake leading to LV network-customer integration
ROCK
SYMPHONY
Energy Efficiency
d d g
EV
d g d
Solar + battery
d g g
d steady uptake g fast uptake
POP
Incremental Probabilistic based planning
IPBP plus managed integration
NETWORK INVESTMENT RESPONSE
Figure 1-4 Scenarios defined
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