Electricity Asset Management Plan 2019-2029
23 Vector Limited://
• Disco (long-term alternative) - customers become self-sufficient and therefore some disconnect from the network and some new customers do not connect to the network • Indie (long terms alternative) - cars become independent from the network due to reduced fleet size in an age of mobility-as-a-service and/or due to the uptake of alternative fuels and charging solutions In preparing this AMP, we have focused our attention on Symphony. In the Symphony scenario, our network can mould to the demand curves of the future. Our solution optionality increases, allowing us to buy time and have more options to solve energy challenges across communities. This in turn allows us to defer investments in physical assets that may not have a place in the future if they can’t align with the evolving interests of consumers. In this year’s AMP, we make the case for the Symphony, which at its core, is a technology and analytics-led approach to asset management and planning. SCENARIO METHODOLOGY Our scenario methodology stems from a mixture of bottom-up and top-down approaches. Most importantly, the model is based on a rich list of Vector data sources and assumptions from different national statistics We have analysed every ICP on our network to gain an understanding of their attributes. Other statistical data includes demographics, dwelling characteristics, household composition, appliance sales and motor vehicle sales, and international studies and reports on technology development and uptake. Customer growth is the same in all scenarios and is based on Auckland City Council data. This data forecasts net changes in households and employees for each of the Auckland Transport zones that cover Vector’s electricity network. The model converts this forecast into ICP numbers for Residential, Small Medium Enterprise and Industrial and Commercial, and scales the first 10 years to match Vector’s 10-year ICP forecast. The cross- pollination of this data ensures the future demand outputs are realistic and robust. The model results are highly granular across the Auckland region and provides customer-demand growth for small blocks (or small geographical areas) of approximately 1,000 dwellings. These small areas can be aggregated to an area of interest (e.g. new urban areas and areas of network constraint) or to existing zone substation assets.
The scenarios analyse different future energy growth patterns. New customer side technologies modelled include residential energy efficiency gains caused by things such as improved insulation, LED lighting, modern energy efficient appliances and the use of home energy management systems. In our scenario modelling attention was given to the impact of residential EV charging, public and business EV charging at places such as service stations, in carparks, and at fleet vehicle depots. We also considered the potential impact that solar and battery systems may have. INVESTMENT AND BENEFIT FROM A SYMPHONY SCENARIO The investments and customer outcomes in each scenario differ. Last year the POP scenario formed the basis for the AMP because it seamlessly fit with the legacy regulatory framework. Symphony and Pop scenarios stand in stark contrast. The benefits of enabling our network to integrate and manage the impact of distributed energy resources, while getting more visibility of the low voltage network through access to smart meter data and additional measuring and sensing devices enables the same resilience but at a lower cost overall. We believe that Symphony will enable a more customer- centric energy network. The Pop and Rock scenarios however, increase the stranded asset risk that could potentially result in physical assets that may not be required by future generations.
Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online