17
SERC East expects to add approximate 7,500 MW of new generation over the 10-year planning horizon, predominantly Gas fired resources. Additionally, SERC East is planning to retire approximately 2,000 MW of coal, nuclear, oil and gas generators. Distributed Energy Resources to date have not caused a noticeable change to the net internal demand, but the solar development project queue continues to increase significantly across the subregion. Entities continue to monitor DER penetration levels, assess the impacts from DER, and incorporate these impacts in system studies. Unlike directly modeled transmission-connected solar, sub-transmission DERs (i.e., rooftop solar) are netted against load in the energy management system and transmission planning models. Future DER output projections are considered to assess the future operational impacts, as well as the magnitude of projected excess energy issues from increasing DER penetration scenarios. Entities continue to plan for these resources and support deploying increased regulation, balancing reserves, essential reliability services allowances, and solar curtailments in the operations planning and real time operating horizons to mitigate potential operational impacts in the near term.
State of Reliability of SERC East Anticipated Reserve Margins for the SERC East subregion are expected to remain above the Reference Reserve Margin for the next 10 years. The forecast planning reserve margin for 2020 exceeds 21 percent. The Anticipated Reserve Margins continue to grow, reaching a 29.62 percent peak by 2029. Additionally, entities in the SERC East subregion also participate in a reserve sharing agreement among the VACAR companies. The SERC East subregion is winter peaking with a forecast total internal demand for 2020 of 43,702 MW. The total internal demand for winter exceeds the total internal demand for summer by approximately 1800 MW. The net internal demand for winter is expected to increase slightly by approximately 0.63 percent over the 10-year planning horizon. Entities report that the queued amount of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) connected to the non-BES, sub-transmission system (rooftop solar, plug-in electric vehicles, etc.) is the driver for approximately 10 percent of the utility scale and transmission BES connected projects (~17,000+ MW) in the interconnection queue over the next 5 years. These non-BES connected DERs are not explicitly modeled as generators, but are instead modeled as a reduction in bus load, netting the actual bus load and the on-line DER generation. Entities are trying to put processes in place to use available data to explicitly model the bus load and DER generation independently to better represent these DERs in our planning models.
Made with FlippingBook - Online magazine maker