China/Hong Kong/SE Asia: The broader Asia-Pacific region continues to post encouraging results despite uneven performance across individual markets. Southeast Asia remains a bright spot, with shipments increasing 27% year to date. Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia all recorded meaningful growth, reflecting continued expansion in both food manufacturing and consumer snack demand. China and Hong Kong remain below prior-year levels, but when looking at both North and Southeast Asia, the combined region is down only 2.3%. Market sentiment has improved in recent months as reduced Australian crop quality has encouraged renewed Chinese interest in California almonds, particularly inshell product. While it remains early, this dynamic could provide additional support to California inshell demand during the upcoming marketing year. Looking ahead, market participants will be closely watching the next round of U.S.-China trade discussions between President Trump and President Xi. Any meaningful progress on tariff negotiations could improve buyer confidence, reduce trade-related uncertainty, and provide an additional tailwind for almond demand in China as importers become more comfortable extending coverage and rebuilding inventories ahead of Chinese New Year. Europe: European demand remains one of the most consistent drivers of California almond exports. Year-to-date shipments are now up 6% ahead of last year, with growth extending across much of the region. Spain, Belgium, Poland, Lithuania, Italy and Germany all have posted year-over-year gains during the crop year. Although shipments to the Netherlands remain below last year’s pace, overall regional demand has remained resilient as buying activity continues to be supported by a diversified customer base spanning retail, confectionery, bakery, and ingredient channels. A noteworthy development that must be mentioned is the new tariff arrangement which took effect on July 1. Almonds and other tree nuts may now enter the EU duty free so long as volumes remain under a 500,000 metric tons quota. This should increase the competitiveness of California almonds in Europe.
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JULY–AUGUST 2026
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