MARKET REPORT
Middle East: Despite continued geopolitical uncertainty throughout portions of the region, Middle East demand remains remarkably resilient. Overall shipments are now in positive territory again, up 2% year to date, driven primarily by another exceptional performance from Turkey. Turkey continues to be the standout market, increasing shipments 42% year-over-year to nearly 146 million pounds. Saudi Arabia remains one of California’s largest individual destinations despite a modest year-over-year decline, while the UAE continues to find its footing following exceptionally strong purchases last season and the fallout from the Iran conflict. Overall, regional demand remains healthy, with the trade working around logistical challenges presented by the on again, off again nature of transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic: Domestic shipments totaled 49.7 million pounds in June, bringing year-to-date domestic shipments to 12.7% below last season. While shipments remain below previous year’s levels, the June performance was generally in line with expectations, with the decline driven primarily by softer manufactured product shipments. As the industry enters the final month of the crop year, we expect domestic demand to remain steady. Buyers continue to maintain a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy, supported by adequate nearby availability and limited urgency to extend coverage. However, as harvest approaches and confidence in the new crop improves, purchasing activity is expected to gradually shift toward securing longer-term coverage. With a healthy pipeline of committed business already in place, July domestic shipments are positioned to perform similarly to last year’s pace, helping close the crop year on stable footing. Overall, balanced supply fundamentals and disciplined buying behavior should support a stable to firming pricing environment heading into the new crop season. COMMITMENTS Total commitments continue to be strong at 368.5 million pounds, pacing ahead of last year by 17.9%. New monthly sales for current crop were 143.2 million pounds, up from 96.8 million pounds last year. The domestic market secured 22.8 million pounds, while exports added 120.4 million pounds of new coverage. Total current crop commitments for the domestic market are now at 145 million pounds while exports have reached 223 million pounds. Another strong month of sales has reduced uncommitted inventory, now down 17.8% at 328.2 million pounds versus 399.2 million pounds prior year. New crop sales were reported at 56 million pounds, up from the prior year’s 45.9 million pounds. The domestic market new crop commitments now stand at 33.6 million pounds, while export commitments have now reached 114.3 million pounds bringing total new crop commitments up to 147.9 million pounds. CROP Significant variability in orchard conditions remain evident across the state, reflecting differences in nutrition, crop load, and management. Thicker hulls and shells suggest lower percentage of kernel weight versus in-hull weight and abandoned and low care orchards present pest management challenges. These variables influence downward pressure on crop size as indicated by our updated crop estimate. Harvest is expected to begin in mid- to late July.
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ALMOND FACTS
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