the rennie outlook . DEMOGRAPHICS, HOUSING DEMAND, & HOUSING SUPPLY IN THE LOWER MAINLAND
January 2019
by: rennie intelligence
table of contents .
The rennie outlook is an annual presentation of short-and long-term demographic changes expected for the Lower mainland. In this report, we describe what these changes mean for future housing demand in the region in the context of expected new housing supply. On behalf of the rennie intelligence team, we hope you find it useful and informative.
1 INTRO
2 OVERVIEW
3 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
7 HOUSING DEMAND
Ryan Berlin Senior Economist rberlin@rennie.com
Andrew Ramlo VP Intelligence aramlo@rennie.com
9 HOUSING SUPPLY
11 CONCLUSION
rennie intelligence . Our rennie intelligence division empowers individuals, organizations and institutions with trusted market insights. We are a diverse team of real estate experts with experience in urban land economics, community planning, demographics and sales. Data-driven by nature, we research and compile the latest metrics, observe trends as they emerge and create informed forecasts. Our resources support our Advisors, our clients and the public. Through speaking engagements, consulting and regular publications, we help them form sound, strategic plans that help our clients achieve their goals.
THE RENNIE OUTLOOK
01. INTRO The regional projections that are persented in this report are predicated on national and provincial trends in births, deaths, and— most importantly—international and inter-provincial migration. The importance of considering higher-level geographies in the preparation of this regional outlook is underscored by recent changes to federal immigration policy, which would see Canadian immigration increase from under 300,000 people today to 340,000 annually by 2020 and furter to 350,000 in 2021—well above both trend levels and previous policy targets that ranged around the 250,000-person mark. With the Lower Mainland accommodating an average of 90% of BCbound immigrants, this policy change has significant implications for the Lower Mainland’s population outlook. Based on the projection of demographic growth and change, an outlook of future housing occupancy demand has been developed. A demographic lifecycle approach to forecasting housing occupancy demand has been used, which acknowledges the role that both population growth and changes in its age composition will have on future levels (and composition) of housing demand. In light of the robust construction activity that has characterized the Lower Mainland over the past few years, the near-term future is likely to see higher-than-average levels of housing completions. The report concludes by comparing this new supply of dwelling units to expected levels of demand.
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02. OVERVIEW COMMENTS ON PROJECTIONS
PRIMARY HOUSEHOLD MAINTAINER (AND RATE): the person (or percentage of people in an age group) that indicate, on their Census form, that they are primarily responsible for their household’s finances. HOUSING START: the beginning of construction work on a building, usually when the concrete has been poured for the whole of the footing around the structure, or an equivalent stage where a basement will not be part of the structure. HOUSING COMPLETION: the stage at which all the proposed construction work on a dwelling unit has been performed, although under some circumstances a dwelling may be counted as completed where up to 10 percent of the proposed work remains to be done. HOUSING OCCUPANCY DEMAND: the demand for dwellings that are occupied on a permanent basis by usual residents. Contrasts with the demand for dwellings that are not occupied on a temporary or seasonal basis, including recreational homes or un-rented investment properties. GROUND ORIENTED DWELLINGS: homes that are accessed from ground level and that do not share a common corridor entrance including Single-detached, Semidetached, Apartment or flat in detached duplex, Row house, Other single-attached and Mobile and moveable. APARTMENT DWELLINGS: homes that generally share a common corridor entrance, including units in buildings under five storeys and those of five or more storeys (as per Statistics Canada definitions). THE LOWER MAINLAND REGION: the functional region of Metro Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and Squamish Lillooet Regional Districts that share a common labour force and transportation infrastructure.
Any long-range projection of demographic change like the ones presented herein are intended to consider general trajectories of change. As such they are more concerned with time periods than with specific dates, with orders of magnitude than with specific values, and therefore with strategic directions than tactical ones. To the extent that trends in fertility, mortality, and/or migration in the coming years differ from those presented in this report, so too will the future realized populations. Similarly, to the degree that regional residential development patterns and trends differ considerably from those presented herein, so too will the regional outlook for housing that is ultimately realized. In light of this, it is important to monitor trends in the underlying drivers to demographic and housing changes in Canada, BC, and the Lower Mainland in order to gauge the extent to which unexpected changes could impact the outlook, and in turn what that will mean for other, related dimensions of regional and community change (from health care and labour force to transportation and land use). development of these outlooks: Statistics Canada’s 2016 and previous Census counts; Statistics Canada’s Demographic Estimates Compendium publication; BC Vital Statistics; Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation; and Metro Vancouver. All forward-looking dimensions presented herein have been developed using rennie intelligence proprietary models. DEFINITIONS While the aim of this report is to present inherently technical information in a manner that is easy to understand, a few specific terms that are referenced in this report that warrant elaboration. DATA SOURCES Five major data sources have been used in the
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03. THE FUTURE OF THE LOWER MAINLAND As with our national and provincial projections, our demographic outlook for the Lower Mainland over the 2017 to 2041 period is based on a cohort survival projection methodology, which accounts for annual changes in fertility, mortality, and migration (including both international and domestic flows), described by age and sex. As a basis for understanding the directions of change implied by the projections, a brief overview of historical and projected trends for each component of demographic change has been included before the projections of population, described by age, are presented. 03.1. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANG E BIRTHS
As at the national and provincial levels, trends in age- specific fertility rates point to only marginal future changes in the Lower Mainland’s total fertility rate (or TFR, the total number of children a woman would be expected to give birth to over the course of her childbearing years). More specifically, the region’s TFR is projected to remain stable in the neighbourhood of 1.56 out to 2041. POSTPONEMENT. Despite this outward stability in the TFR, the underlying age-specific pattern of child-bearing is expected to follow historical patterns of change, most prominently characterized by a continuation of postponement in the peak child-bearing years. This pattern of postponement will result in further declines
in the propensity of females under the age of 30 to have children, and increases for those aged 30-plus.
STABILITY OVER TIME. With a stable TFR expected over the next two and a half decades, the declines in fertility rates in the younger age groups would be commensurate to the increases in rates experienced by those in the older age groups. The result would be a continuation of below-replacement levels of fertility, meaning migration will play an increasing role over time in growing the regional population. DEATHS The projection of mortality for the Lower Mainland describes further declines in age- and sex-specific
FIGURE 1
Components of Population Change, Lower Mainland 1991/92 - 2040/41
50,000
NET INTERNATIONAL
39,442
40,000
33,425
30,000
23,633
20,000
20,222
NATURAL INCREASE
8,902
10,000
4,716
13,217
NET INTER PROVINCIAL
5,782
0
-870
-10,000
-5,470
NET INTRA PROVINCIAL
-8,850
-11,082
actual
projected
-20,000
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mortality rates, implying continued increases in life expectancy (at all ages).
SLOWING INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION. Balanced against other short-term trends, such as the labour requirements of an expanding regional economy and issues of housing affordability, net inter-provincial migration to the Lower Mainland is projected to moderate somewhat from peaks seen in the recent past. Specifically, the region is projected to grow by an average of 4,300 residents annually between 2017 and 2041 through net inter-provincial migration, which is below the historical average of more than 6,200 per year (1986 to 2016). As this projection is, on a historical context, modest, it is worth noting that this inter-provincial outlook implicitly acknowledges a landscape of demographic and economic projections for all provinces and territories in Canada, and in doing so also represents a “levelling-out” of the peaks and the troughs in migration flows that will inevitably be realized here in BC and the Lower Mainland. NET OUTFLOWS TO THE REST OF BC. In contrast to this net annual gain in population through inter-provincial flows, net intra-provincial migration is expected to continue to remain negative out to 2041: on average, it is expected that almost 8,000 people will leave the region each year (on a net basis) for other parts of the province. This out- flow is expected to be reinforced over the medium- and longer-terms by the significant equity gains in residential real estate that have been realized throughout the Lower Mainland over the past three decades. For many homeowners (especially retirees), the 108% increase in average home values within the region over just the past decade represents a significant source of tax-free capital gains, which in turn are collectively expected to act as a “push factor” for local households relocating to other (amenity-rich) cities and regions throughout the province.
INCREASING LIFE EXPECTANCY. Male life expectancies are projected to increase into the neighbourhood of 84 years at birth (from the current 80), and for females towards 87 years (versus 84 today) by 2041. While mortality rates have been projected on the basis of the historical pattern of decline seen over the past three decades, the rate at which they decline is expected to slow considerably. INCREASING MORE SLOWLY. A diminishing rate of increase will reflect the relative contributions of medicine and medical technology to the extension of life expectancies, as future declines will be incrementally more expensive and harder to achieve than those experienced in the past. MALE-FEMALE CONVERGENCE. Another interesting trend that is expected to continue to characterize future patterns of mortality is the declining gap between male and female life expectancies. From 7.3 years in 1976, the gap between male and females life expectancies for Canada as a whole has fallen dramatically since then, to 3.9 years in 2017. This overarching demographic phenomenon has implications for a wide range of issues, including housing, as the archetypal image of an elderly widow living alone continues to shift towards couples living together, longer. MIGRATION While the regional outlook for international migration reflects the federal government’s policy shifts towards accommodating 340,000 immigrants by 2020, the projection of domestic migration considers the past two decades of annual inter-provincial migration (those moving between the Lower Mainland and other provinces) and intra-provincial migration (those moving between the Lower Mainland and other parts of British Columbia), both in terms of the in- and out-flows, and the age composition of these flows. This more-than- two-decade period (spanning 1993 to 2016) provides a reasonable baseline for future estimates as it encompasses periods of both high and low net in-migration—high in the early-1990s and low through the early-2000s, particularly between 1997 to 2002, when provincial economic activity was flagging.
When combined with the flow of emigrants and the change in the number of non-permanent residents, net international migration to the Lower Mainland is expected to increase from 33,000 people in 2016 to a peak of 46,000 in 2023 .
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POPULATION GROWTH & CHANGE Combining the composition of the region’s current population with consideration of their aging and future levels of net migration, fertility, and mortality frames the demographic context for change in the Lower Mainland to 2041. GETTING LARGER... The projection describes a population that grows larger over time, but does so at a relatively slow (and slowing) rate when compared to the historical experience. More specifically, the outlook takes the Lower Mainland from its current (2017) population of 2.93 million residents to 3.12 million by 2021, past 3.62 million by 2031, and further to 4.03 million by 2041 (Figure 2). In growing by 38%, the Lower Mainland is projected to add an average of 45,000 net new residents each year (on a net basis), with the annual growth rate averaging 1.3% between 2017 and 2041. As a point of comparison to this latter metric, the Lower Mainland grew by an average of 1.8% per year over the past decade and a half.
340,000 IMMIGRANTS TO CANADA BY 2020. As international migration to Canada is shaped by federal government policy, the national immigration outlook outlined in the introduction provides the context for international migration to the Lower Mainland. While historical trends in the region’s share of Canada’s international migrant flows were considered in determining the number of immigrants moving to the Lower Mainland over the course of the projection period, other short- and long-term push and pull factors (such as the potentially competing effects of a growing local economy and deteriorating housing affordability) were considered. When combined with the flow of emigrants from the region (here projected on the basis of historical emigration as a share of the existing regional population) and the change in the number of non- permanent residents (such as students and those on work visas), net international migration to the Lower Mainland is expected to increase from 33,000 people in 2016 to a peak of 46,000 in 2023 before subsiding to just under 40,000 annually by 2041.
...AT A SLOWING RATE. In the near-term, the annual rate of population growth in the Lower Mainland is expected to increase from its current 1.2% to 1.7% (by 2020)— largely due to increased net international migration— before slowing over the medium- and longer-term, towards 0.9% by 2041. This would occur in spite of annual net migration levels that will be above historical averages (38,500 over the next 25 years versus 33,000 from 1992 to 2016), as the decline in the contribution of natural increase will slow regional population additions compared to what has been experienced historically (of note is that deaths will outnumber births in the Lower Mainland beginning in 2042).
FIGURE 2
Total Population, Lower Mainland 1991 - 2041
4.03
3.62
3.38
3.4%
2.93
2.70
2.49
2.36
2.5%
1.86
1.7%
ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE
1.6%
0.9%
1.2%
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FIGURE 3
Population Change by Age, Lower Mainland 2017 - 2041
232,811
1.10 million
197,161
156%
Absolute Change
144%
Relative Change
162,800
147,143
120,171
95,696
79,562
56%
63,934
45%
39%
38%
34%
21%
909
15%
0.2%
0..14 15..24 25..34 35..44 45..54 55..64 65..74 75..84
85+
Total
CHANGING MUCH MORE THAN GROWING. Although year- to-year relative (percentage) growth in the Lower Mainland’s total population will be modest when compared to its historical experienced due to our aging population and below-replacement fertility rates, the changes in the region’s population age composition will be more significant, a feature that will have marked impacts on everything from labour supply and employment to housing and transportation demand. To this point, Figure 3 shows how the rapid growth in the older segments of the region’s population will be contrasted by a younger population that will grow more slowly in relative terms, but that will add a significant number of people (largely through net international migration). In particular, the Lower Mainland’s 85-plus age group is projected to grow by 156% (over four times the 38% projected for the population as a whole), while the 75 to 84 year old group would grow by a similar magnitude of 144%. In contrast, each of the under-35 age groups are expected to grow more slowly than the regional average, with the slowest being the 0.2% growth projected for the 15 to 24 segment. GETTING OLDER. This pattern of change would see the 65- plus segment’s share of the Lower Mainland’s population grow from 16% in 2017 to 22% by 2041, while the prime working-age segment (those between the ages of 25 and 64) would shrink as a proportion of regional
Although growth in the Lower Mainland’s population will be modest when compared to past years, the changes in the region’s population age composition will be significant and will impact everything from labour supply and employment to housing and transportation demand .
population, from 56% to 54%. The number of people under the age of 25 would also decline in share, from 28% in 2017 to 24% by 2041. Thus, while each of these broad age groups is projected to increase in size (in absolute terms), the aging of what amounts to two-fifths of the region’s population in 2017 (those currently between the ages of 35 and 64) into the 65-plus age group over the next two and a half decades will be a defining feature of the Lower Mainland’s demography during this time. Another feature will be the aforementioned shift to migration (and, specifically, immigration) as the primary driver to population additions. Given the youthful profile of domestic and international migration, this latter trend will have a more significant impact on the younger segments of the region’s population.
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03.2. HOUSING DEMAND Having considered how the Lower Mainland’s population is expected to grow and change in the coming years, it is useful to consider how the region’s housing stock will, in parallel, need to change. To do this, a demographic approach that tracks people through the lifecycle of housing occupancy has been used, one that considers household age, dwelling structural type, and household tenure (as shown in Figure 4, below), to yield an outlook for regional housing occupancy demand. This housing outlook describes the number of dwelling units required to house the region’s population each year to 2041.
FIGURE 4
The Lifecycle of Housing Occupancy by Structural Type, Lower Mainland 2016
The Lifecycle of Housing Occupancy by Tenure, Lower Mainland 2016
39% 39% 38%
45% 45%
38%
37% 36% 35% 34%
40% 42% 43% 43% 45%
35%
39%
37%
Ground Oriented
Owned
33%
29%
27%
25%
28%
21%
21%
20%
20% 21% 22% 24% 23%
23% 24%
22%
21%
18% 17% 17% 18% 18%
19% 18% 16% 15% 14% 14% 13% 12% 12% 11%
12%
12%
10%
Apartment
Rental
11%
1% 5% 2%
1% 3% 2%
age
age
THE LIFECYCLE PATTERN OF HOUSING. The pattern of housing occupancy follows a distinct lifecycle pattern when considered by age. From the youngest age group (15 to 19 years)—of whom only 3% indicated they maintained their own household (and thereby referred to as the household maintainer, or the person that is primarily responsible for the finances of their household)—rates increase to 16% in the 20 to 24 group as the kids begin to move out on their own, and further to between 34% and 45% for those between the ages of 25 and 34 years. Household maintainer rates remain in the range of 49% and 58% for people between the ages of 35 and 84, dropping down to 50% for the 85-plus group as these older residents move back in with their grown children or into other forms of housing such as nursing homes and seniors’ residences. As shown in Figure 4, the age-specific pattern of housing occupancy also follows a distinct lifecycle pattern when considered by dwelling structural type and by household tenure type.
APARTMENTS FOR YOUNGER & OLDER FOLKS. When considered in the context of structural forms, the relative importance of apartment dwellings is evident for each of the younger and older segments of the population. To wit, more than one in five people between the ages of 25 and 39 maintain a household in an apartment, a ratio that is similar to that of each of the 65-plus groups. GROUND ORIENTED FOR FAMILIES. In comparison, ground oriented forms of housing dominate the family-formation and family-rearing stages of the lifecycle (the 35 to 59 age groups), where over 35% of people are household maintainers in these types of dwellings (ranging from detached homes to laneway houses, duplexes, and townhomes). RENTAL AS A POINT OF MARKET ENTRY. From a tenure perspective, the role that rental plays as a means for young people to enter the housing market is clearly evident: for each of the under-35 age groups rental maintainer rates exceed those for owner-occupancy, driven by lifecycle stages characterized by a high degree of mobility for lifestyle, education, or labour market opportunities.
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FIGURE 5
Long-term Outlook, Lower Mainland 2017 - 2041
48%
46%
44%
43%
38%
36%
Population 1,100,186
Dwelling Units 498,204
Ground Oriented 292,351
Apartment 205,853
Owned 352,403
Rented 145,801
MORE OLDER OWNERS. As with ground oriented rates increasing through family-formation, so too do owner- occupied rates. From a high of 24% in the 30 to 34 age group, rental rates decline steadily with increasing age, falling to only 11% of those in the 85-plus group maintaining a households in rental accommodation somewhere in the Lower Mainland (versus 39% of the same age group who were owner-occupied household maintainers). Combining trends in these age-specific patterns of housing occupancy with the projection of regional population growth and change yields an outlook of the future scale and composition of housing occupancy demand in the Lower Mainland. FASTER GROWTH IN HOUSING THAN IN POPULATION. Specifically, the projection shows the demand for housing expanding by almost 500,000 units between 2017 and 2041 in order to accommodate the 1.10 million additional residents (Figure 5). This 44% growth in the occupied housing stock would be driven by the 38% growth in region’s population over the same period, as well as underlying changes in its demography (such as the aging of the region’s existing millennial generation into full household formation). On average, net new housing occupancy demand would average 20,500 homes each year to 2041, which compares to growth of approximately 16,400 units annually over the past two and half decades.
Part of the explanation for future housing demand growing more rapidly than what has been observed historically relates to the pattern of growth in the region’s younger generations, combined with the changing pattern of household maintainer rates for these younger residents. Another part relates to the long (and increasing) life expectancies of the older generations and the associated high household maintainer rates in these later stages of the lifecycle. From representing 16% of the region’s population today to 22% by 2041, these older generations (those aged 65-plus) will also account for a growing share of the Lower Mainland’s private dwelling housing stock, which may in turn result in a slowing of the overall housing turnover rate in the coming years.
Accommodating the region’s future growth and change would require upwards of 500,000 new dwelling units to be added by 2041, representing an average of more than 20,000 net new units each year .
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MORE GROUND ORIENTED ADDITIONS, BUT FASTER APARTMENT GROWTH. On a structural-type basis, occupancy demand for apartment units is expected to grow more rapidly than that for ground oriented units (at 46% versus 43% between 2017 and 2041), driven by a growing millennial generation in the short-term and, over the longer-term, by the aging of the bulk of the post-War baby boom generation into the stage of the lifecycle where apartment rates rise once again. On average, future net additional housing demand is expected to be in the neighbourhood of 12,000 ground oriented units and 8,500 apartment units annually over the next 25 years. MORE AND FASTER GROWTH IN OWNER-OCCUPANCY. The outlook for rental is for an additional 146,000 units to be demanded over the coming two and a half decades years, or an average of about 6,100 units per year. This demand will largely be driven by growth of the younger generations—growth which itself will be driven by migration to the region. The pattern of falling maintainer rates for rental with increasing age will result in demand for owned units growing more rapidly than for rental homes in both absolute and relative terms. On the ownership side, demand for more than 350,000 additional units is expected over the coming 25 years, or about 14,700 annually to 2041. 03.3. HOUSING SUPPLY Having examined the demand side of the housing market to this point, we are now able to consider the supply side using data from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC’s) New Housing Construction survey, which details housing starts and completions by structural type. The main strengths of this database lie in its comprehensive coverage, both in terms of the amount of time that CMHC has been collecting these data (which are available publicly back to 1990) and in terms of the frequency of the updates (monthly). Another important dimension that these supply-side data provides, in addition to identifying the number of newly-constructed units that are available each year to accommodate population growth and change (i.e. completions), is a glimpse into the magnitude of completions that can be expected in the coming years. This is done by translating housing starts on a dwelling type basis into future completions in the short- run. These, in turn, can be assessed against expected levels of demand.
DEMOLITIONS MATTER. Having said this, before the starts and completions data can be related to housing demand (either in a historical context or a future one), it is necessary to account for the number of dwelling units that are removed from the housing stock each year—that is, demolitions. As part of its online Databook, Metro Vancouver has made public
FIGURE 6
Short-term Housing Supply & Demand Outlook, Lower Mainland
Modeled Completions
28,000
24,000
Modeled Starts
20,000
16,000
Modeled Completions
the number of housing demolitions that have occurred annually back to 2007.
12,000
8,000
Occupancy Demand Increment
4,000
0
These data show that for every 1,000 housing starts in the Lower Mainland over the past decade there were roughly 164 residential demolitions, translating into a demolition
Projected
Actual
-4,000
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rate of 16%. Applying this demolition rate to the starts and completions database allows for the estimation of the annual net level of new housing supply, how this has historically related to housing demand, and how it looks relative to our outlook of future demand in the short-run (covering the near-term period where existing housing starts can be translated into expected completions). COMPLETIONS EQUAL LAGGED STARTS. Figure 6 shows the cyclical patterns of housing occupancy demand and housing supply. The mis-match that is evident between demand and supply is driven in part by construction time lines (from potentially as short as one year for a detached home and up to several years for large, multi-family projects), and in part by the fact that future development activity tends to ebb and flow based on current demand trends. Consider in Figure 6, for example, the expanding occupancy demand in the mid-1990s and the lagged supply response that saw housing starts begin to increase several years later (in the early-2000s). EXCESS DEMAND AND SUPPLY. Another interesting feature of the relationship between housing demand and supply within the region is the periods of excess demand and excess supply. In netting down the supply data to represent only “net new” dwellings (by way of accounting for demolition counts), and comparing this to potential demand, shows that the market has generally been under-supplied relative to levels of population and housing growth. Most recently, 2017 is an outlier in that estimates of occupancy demand were well below the number of completions.
NO ADJUSTMENT FOR VACANCY. Before considering the future, it is important to note here that the supply of new units estimated to be coming to the market has not been adjusted for a vacancy (or unoccupied) factor, which would reflect homes that are being used as non-primary (i.e. secondary) residences. Recent data from the City of Vancouver show that units not occupied as primary residences ranged between 3% and 8% depending on where you look within the city and which dwelling types are being considered. RISING NEAR-TERM COMPLETIONS. Looking forward, because there was a high level of starts in both 2017 and 2018, associated housing completions are expected rise to 21,600 in 2018 and 21,500 in 2019, before tapering slightly to just under 21,000 for each of 2020 and 2021. Similar to the historical lags seen between occupancy demand, starts, and completions, the high number of recent starts is expected to exceed additional occupancy demand in the short-term future. This will in part compensate for the 2012 to 2016 period, where the number of completions that were available for occupancy came up short against expected occupancy demand. Given the growing rate of population additions and the tapering of starts that was seen after 2016, completions are also expected to come in below net additional occupancy demand through to 2021.
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04. CONCLUSION As with all metropolitan regions in Canada, British Columbia’s Lower Mainland is expected to experience a fair degree of population growth and demographic change in the coming years. That said, with the annual pace of total population growth slowing to under 1% by 2041 (from the current 1.2%), the emphasis will be much more on change than on growth. For example, the next two and a half decades will see the region’s 65 and older population expand by 89%, while its working- age population grows by 33% and the number of kids expands by only 18%. With below-replacement birth rates expected to prevail to 2041 (as they have since the early- 1970s), migration will become the predominant source of growth in the working-age population (that is, the segment of the population largely responsible for paying the health care costs associated with an aging population and supporting the range of other Canadian pay-as-you go services). Given the current and expected lifecycle patterns of housing occupancy, demographic change will see to it that the rate of growth in housing occupancy demand will outpace that of population (at 44% versus 38%). As a result, the region will need to add an average of almost 21,000 homes (on a net basis) each year for the next two and a half decades to accommodate average population additions of almost 46,000 per year. While the most recent (2017) data show the region’s supply of net new housing growing by 19,000 units (annual completions adjusted for demolitions), in looking ahead over the next couple of years when known housing starts become completions, the expectation is for upwards of 21,000 net new units to become available for occupancy by 2021, slightly below expected demand of 22,600 units at that time.
By 2021, occupancy demand is again expected to continue to exceed the supply of units coming to the market, therefore, current conversation around housing availability and affordability are not likely to fade into the background .
In other words, given expected changes in the regions’ residents and residences, current conversations around housing availability and affordability and, by extension, the region’s ability to remain economically competitive will likely not fade into the background. The region will continue to be challenged to deliver new supply— and the right supply—in a way that efficiently accommodates our growing and changing population. This underscores the requirement that a multi-pronged approach be adopted by all levels of government, the development industry, and individual households so we can efficiently navigate the evolving landscape of both housing supply and demand in this much-desired market.
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REPRODUCTION OF THIS REPORT IN WHOLE OR IN PART WITHOUT PERMISSION OF RENNIE IS PROHIBITED. BRIEF EXTRACTS FOR REVIEW PURPOSES MAY BE MADE WITH DUE ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF THE SOURCE. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT HAS BEEN COMPILED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION IS NOT GUARANTEED. E&OE
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