Slide 1: The UK Trade Skills Index 2024 | 1 |
Slide 2: Foreword | 2 |
Slide 3: Contents | 3 |
Slide 4: 1.3 million new recruits and 350,000 apprentices needed in the construction sector over next 10 years to deliver on housing and net zero, with 30% for housing I&R work | 4 |
Slide 5: Key findings (1) | 5 |
Slide 6: Key findings (2) | 6 |
Slide 7: Key findings (3) | 7 |
Slide 8: 1. Macroeconomic context | 8 |
Slide 9: Healthy economic recovery this year and next as interest rate cuts support activity | 9 |
Slide 10: Real GDP to average 1.7% over the next decade, driven by pick-up in productivity growth | 10 |
Slide 11: 2. Policy context | 11 |
Slide 12: New Labour government ushers in increased housing targets to get Britain building again | 12 |
Slide 13: Meeting net zero targets will require an increase in capacity in the construction sector | 13 |
Slide 14: Improving energy efficiency of homes will save residents money on bills | 14 |
Slide 15: 3. Construction sector workforce | 15 |
Slide 16: Current skills shortages have eased since 2022 but remain elevated | 16 |
Slide 17: An ageing construction workforce represent risks to the construction sector | 17 |
Slide 18: The construction industry has a high proportion of self-employed workers | 18 |
Slide 19: Construction remains a male and white dominated industry | 19 |
Slide 20: Construction is the most exposed sector to increased demand and upskilling pressures resulting from the net zero transition | 20 |
Slide 21: Most skilled construction occupations saw an acceleration in their wage growth between 2015 and 2023, as skills shortages rose | 21 |
Slide 22: 4. Construction apprenticeships | 22 |
Slide 23: Construction apprenticeship completions up by 11.9% but below previous peaks | 23 |
Slide 24: Apprentices in construction are disproportionately male and of white ethnicity | 24 |
Slide 25: Relative to all apprentices, construction apprentices are disproportionately under 19 | 25 |
Slide 26: Apprenticeships for Electricians, Carpenters, and Plumbers most common apprenticeships of the key trades | 26 |
Slide 27: 5. Modelling the need for workers and apprentices | 27 |
Slide 28: We have modelled output and employment if housebuilding and net zero targets are met | 28 |
Slide 29: Accelerated housebuilding and retrofitting will require a boost in construction output and employment | 29 |
Slide 30: Achieving targets lifts construction output growth to 3.7% p.a. over the next decade | 30 |
Slide 31: Decarbonisation policies and more housing transactions would support I&R growth | 31 |
Slide 32: Expansion in output to hit targets would require around 220,000 workers in housing I&R by 2033 | 32 |
Slide 33: Carpenters and builders would see the largest absolute increase in employment as a result of expanding output from reaching targets | 33 |
Slide 34: The housing I&R sector would need 377,000 recruits over the next 10 years to achieve targets and to replace retirees and leavers, with 1.3 million needed for construction overall | 34 |
Slide 35: Reaching the modelled employment requirements should involve at least 346,600 construction apprentice completions over the next ten years, with 30% for housing I&R | 35 |
Slide 36: 6. Need for workers and apprentices by location | 36 |
Slide 37: Ten selected geographies make up over one third of total I&R activity | 37 |
Slide 38: Employment need varies by geography based on current construction employment and activity, housing targets and dwelling stock | 38 |
Slide 39: Over 200,000 new recruits in construction required in London and around 96,000 needed in Scotland over the next decade to achieve targets and replace leavers | 39 |
Slide 40: Around 56,000 new recruits in construction required in Greater Manchester and 47,000 needed in Greater Birmingham | 40 |
Slide 41: Around 26,000 new recruits in construction required in Greater Liverpool and 19,000 needed in Leeds | 41 |
Slide 42: Around 11,000 new recruits in construction required in Sheffield and 6,500 needed in Bristol | 42 |
Slide 43: Around 5,000 new recruits in construction required in Newcastle upon Tyne and 4,300 needed in Nottingham | 43 |
Slide 44: London will need at least 55,000 qualified construction apprentices over the next 10 years to unlock the potential to hit housebuilding and net zero targets | 44 |
Slide 45: Recommendations | 45 |
Slide 46 | 46 |
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