RUSSIA AND CHINA IN AFRICA: INTERESTS, INFLUENCE, AND INSTRUMENTS OF POWER
By Robert Hamilton
02/13/ 2026
01.
Introduction
02.
Russian and Chinese Interests in Africa
03.
Russian and Chinese Influence in Africa
04.
Russian and Chinese Use of the Instruments of Power in Africa
05.
Russia
06.
China
07.
Conclusion
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INTRODUCTION
In mid-January 2026, warships from Russia, China, and Iran began converging off the coast of South Africa. Soon joined by ships of the South African Navy, the visitors were in African waters for the naval exercise “WILL FOR PEACE 2026”. Exercises involving the Russian and Chinese navies have become a regular occurrence around Africa, the most recent one being the third since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The meaning of WILL FOR PEACE was more broadly geopolitical than narrowly military. Although the flotillas were small - with only two Russian and two Chinese ships participating - the signals the exercise sent were significant. For Russia, it served to highlight that its military is still respected and welcome in the Global South, and that attempts to isolate it for its attack on Ukraine have limits. For China, increased military presence in and around Africa serves its goal of building stability on the continent, stability required for Beijing’s significant economic investments in Africa to bear fruit. For both, the exercise served to demonstrate their blue-water reach and normalize their naval presence along key sea lanes. Military exercises are only one way Russia and China have been advancing their interests and attempting to build influence in Africa. Both have also used diplomacy and economic engagement to do so. In 2026 for the 36th straight year, the Chinese Foreign Minister’s first foreign visit of the year was to Africa. Over that period there have been “almost 200 visits to 48 African countries involving Chinese heads of state, premiers, and foreign ministers.” [1]
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[2]
This year’s visit is to Ethiopia, Tanzania, Somalia, and Lesotho. Russia’s diplomatic engagement with Africa lags behind China’s, but Moscow is working to increase it. In December 2025 it held the second Russia-Africa Ministerial Conference in Egypt, the first of the series launched in 2019 to take place in Africa. A main objective of the conference was to set the stage for the upcoming 2026 Russia-Africa Summit, to be held in Ethiopia in October, with a secondary goal being to begin drafting the 2026- 2029 strategic action plan between Russia and Africa. This paper, the first in a series of four, will analyze Russian and Chinese interests and influence in Africa, and provide an overview of their use of diplomatic, informational, military, and economic instruments to advance their goals on the continent. Africa arguably matters more for Russia and China than it has at any time in recent history, for several reasons. For Russia, its relations with African states serve to demonstrate that Western attempts to isolate it have failed. In addition, Africa’s volatile security environment - to which Russia sometimes contributes - offers fertile ground for Moscow’s newly-minted Africa Corps (the latest incarnation of the notorious Wagner Group) to operate. For China, Africa is a key node in its attempt to establish an alternative system of global order centered on Beijing. China’s flagship economic and security initiatives, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Global Development Initiative (GDI), and Global Security Initiative (GSI), are all active in Africa. For both Russia and China, Africa offers another advantage over many parts of the world: a light US footprint, set to get even lighter as the Trump Administration focuses US foreign policy on the Western Hemisphere. Since both Moscow and Beijing believe the US is determined to limit their freedom of action in areas of the world it deems important, the relative lack of US presence in Africa offers opportunities other areas do not. But this may prove a double-edged sword: with the US often seen as the “binding agent” in Russian-Chinese relations, the two may find that absent the incentive to cooperate against the US, their interests in Africa are not as aligned as they seem. [3]
“Africa is a key node in China’s attempt to establish an alternative system of global order centered on Beijing.”
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RUSSIAN AND CHINESE INTERESTS IN AFRICA Russia’s view of Africa is largely instrumental and its activities there are self-serving. Moscow’s African goals revolve around reasserting its great-power status, countering Western influence, profiting from arms sales and security contracts, accessing natural resources, and gaining UN support for (or at least limiting UN condemnation of) its invasion of Ukraine. It has had at least moderate success in all of these areas. Russia’s great power status is an obsession of the Kremlin, and one generally shared by the Russian people. Public opinion polls consistently show the Russian people perceive their country’s great power status as an important goal, and the number of Russians who believe their country is a great power has risen five-fold since 2013. Moscow’s diplomatic, military, and economic presence in Africa serves the goal of building its great power identity, especially when it can erode Western influence and undermine Western interests in the process. It has especially focused on doing so in the Sahel, by leveraging dissatisfaction with Western peacekeeping/counter-terrorism missions and the conditionality that comes with Western assistance. In Mali, Burkina-Faso, Niger, and the Central African Republic, Russia has replaced international military forces, after convincing local governments that Russian Africa Corps forces would be a more effective and less intrusive partner. While this has allowed Moscow to raise its military profile in Africa at the expense of the West, it has incurred more losses than gains for its efforts. Mali provides a case in point here. Although it was “advertised as a flagship for Russia’s Africa strategy”, Mali has proven to be inhospitable ground for Russian mercenaries, who suffered a total military defeat to Touareg separatist forces in July 2024, and more recently were unable to prevent a move toward Mali’s capital by an al-Qaeda affiliate known as JNIM (Jama’at Nusrat al- Islam wal-Muslimin). But Africa Corps deployments to Africa serve more than military and reputational goals for the Kremlin. Where Moscow’s mercenaries go in Africa, resource extraction often follows. The goal is twofold: gaining resources for Russia and “dislodging Western companies from an area of strategic importance.” In every country in which they operate, Russian mercenaries “have secured valuable natural resources using these to not only cover costs, but also extract significant revenue.” Russia extracted some $2.5 billion worth of gold from Africa between 2022 and 2024 alone. Whether Russia will continue to accept military losses for economic gains is unclear, but what is clear is that Africa Corps deployments serve multiple purposes for the Kremlin. [4] [5] [6] [7] [8]
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The Russia-Africa Summit, October 2019. From GovernmentZA, Flickr [CC BY-ND 2.0].
Russia’s next set of interests in Africa center on limiting the diplomatic and reputational damage from its war on Ukraine. Due to its lack of a colonial history in Africa, and memories of Soviet support for African liberation movements, Moscow enjoyed a reservoir of goodwill among many African governments. Since February 2022, it has drawn on this goodwill to influence the UN votes of African states, especially where Ukraine is concerned. Africa routinely has the highest proportion of countries abstaining from or voting against UN resolutions condemning Russia. Immediately after the full-scale invasion, South Africa led a bloc of African countries that abstained from the UN General Assembly resolution condemning Moscow’s aggression. Although over 81% of non-African member states voted for the resolution, only 51% of African members did, underlining the fact that opinion among African UN members is split over fault for the war. This pattern has largely persisted since, with African states being less willing to condemn Russia than are other UN members. Underlining Russia’s instrumental attitude toward Africa is the fact that it has been fertile recruiting ground for the Russian military, with many Africans sent to fight in Ukraine. Ukraine’s government says over 1400 Africans are fighting for Russia there, often having been lured to Ukraine on false pretenses. Luring Africans to fight at the [10] front in Ukraine converts Africa’s poverty to Russia’s advantage, and recruiting foreigners avoids having to mobilize urban ethnic Russians, a move that could carry a high political cost for the Kremlin. China frames its activities and objectives in Africa as “win-win”; sometimes making good on that promise and other times failing to do so. Compared to Russia’s, China’s interests in Africa are broader, more comprehensive, and more formally integrated. Where Russia often informally parlays security assistance into resource extraction, China has formal programs aimed at bolstering security (GSI), building the infrastructure of a global trading system (BRI), and enabling economic development (GDI). The overall goal of these programs is to establish a new global order based on China’s vision of itself and its role in the world. [9] [11]
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Africa matters for this vision for two reasons: its economic potential and the threats to that potential posed by the continent’s seemingly eternal problems of ethnic, religious, and political violence. As Forbes notes, Africa boasts a “rapidly expanding population, abundant natural resources, and rising digital connectivity”, giving it high potential for growth in consumer goods, financial services, and high-tech. But it is also [12] beset by terrorism, insurgency, piracy, and other forms of mass violence, and these directly affect both China’s economic investments and its ability to bring Chinese goods to African markets and vice versa. For this reason, two of Beijing’s most important geographic focus areas on the continent are the Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Guinea, where trade routes and instability intersect.
“Africa matters for China’s vision for two reasons: its economic potential and the threats to that potential posed by the continent’s seemingly eternal problems of ethnic, religious, and political violence.”
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) strongly believes that development and security are linked, and this informs Beijing’s initiatives in Africa, as elsewhere. For the CCP, economic development creates the conditions for long-term security and stability. But in the short-term, especially in environments like that found in much of Africa, lack of security threatens the type of investment that can enable development. For this reason, China’s security and economic activities in Africa are tightly linked. In part to protect its investments in Africa, China has a military base in Djibouti, one of only two outside its borders. It also has invested heavily in training African police and lawyers, training over 40,000 from some 40 African countries. Finally, Beijing is a major contributor to UN peacekeeping operations on the continent, with some 80% of all Chinese peacekeepers deployed to Africa. In all, over 32,000 Chinese soldiers have served in UN missions there, the highest number among permanent members of the UN Security Council. [14] One area where Chinese and Russian activities in Africa align is in whipping UN votes of African countries. Like Russia, China leverages its history of support for Africa’s anti- colonial movements into support in the UN, especially on issues related to Taiwan. [13]
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RUSSIAN AND CHINESE INFLUENCE IN AFRICA
Both Russia and China inherited a reservoir of goodwill from many African states, a result of the facts that neither Moscow nor Beijing had a colonial history in Africa, and that both supported African anti-colonial movements during the Cold War. This is especially true of Russia, and especially true in South Africa, where memories of the Soviet Union’s support for the anti-apartheid African National Congress (ANC) run deep. After the end of apartheid and the collapse of the Soviet Union, Western leaders pressed new South African President Nelson Mandela about why he supported Russia and its agenda. Mandela angrily replied that the Soviet Union had been the only international source of support for the ANC as it battled apartheid. On a 1999 visit to Moscow, Madela made his gratitude clear, saying “We received enormous assistance from the Soviet Union, an assistance which we could not get from the West and Russia should have been the very first country I visited and I've come to pay that debt now.” [16] Russia also has current sources of influence in Africa,some of which stems from Africans’ frustration with Western assistance. As noted earlier, the Wagner Group/Africa Corps successfully leveraged frustration with Western peacekeeping/counter-terrorism missions in the Sahel, convincing several countries in that region to eject Western forces and replace them with Russian mercenaries. As Dan Whitman notes, Russia’s presence and activities are self-serving, but many Africans expect this and are unperturbed by it, preferring naked selfishness to what they see as Western hypocrisy. Whitman argues that Russian narratives appeal especially “to young Africans who are fed up with the Western presence. With justification, they see the West as having supported regimes, not people.” Tying Russia’s influence back to the Soviet Union’s support for African liberation movements, Whitman concludes, “Adding a few lies to a sound anti-colonial narrative has served it well.” But there are clear limits to Moscow's influence in Africa. Some of these are structural and out of Moscow’s control, and some are a result of its own actions. In the latter category is the fact that Russia focuses on ties with elites and generally ignores the needs of African populations. This is especially true of the Africa Corps, which focuses on regime protection, and either does not address the needs of ordinary Africans, or commits grave human rights violations against them. A 2025 report from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) alleges that Russian mercenaries in Africa “regularly shared photos and videos of murder, rape, torture, cannibalism and desecration of corpses against alleged insurgents and civilians”. [19] [15] [17] [18]
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The structural reasons for Russia’s limited influence in Africa mostly devolve from comparing its presence and activities with those of China. While Russia may have inherited a slightly deeper reservoir of historical goodwill than did China - the Soviet Union was an earlier and more active supporter of African anti-colonial movements than was the People’s Republic of China - China has more than made up for this through its contemporary role on the continent. Beijing’s large, broad-based, institutionalized presence in Africa, which encompasses the diplomatic, security, and economic spheres, is seen as a generally positive force among African publics. China has the highest favorability rating of major powers among African publics, with 60% of those surveyed approving of its role, and only 19% disapproving. Russia, by comparison, has the lowest favorability rating, with only 36% assessing its role as positive. Aside from the aforementioned Russian crimes against civilians and support for elites at the expense of African populations, there are two main reasons for this difference. First is the size of China’s presence in Africa, which dwarfs Russia’s by any measure. China has embassies in all 54 African countries, while Russia is present in only 39 of them. Chinese aid, trade and investment are orders of magnitude greater than those of Russia: Beijing’s “China has the highest favorability rating of major powers among African publics… Russia, by comparison, has the lowest favorability rating.” trade with the continent in 2024 totalled $295 billion to only $24.5 billion for Russia. The next reason is that Chinese aid focuses on tangible projects that meet the needs of ordinary Africans. As one African scholar puts it, China invests in physical infrastructure projects and finishes them quickly, both of which people like. What resentment there is over Chinese activities in Africa often stems from its labor practices, which have historically favored bringing in Chinese workers for infrastructure projects rather than hiring Africans. Where Chinese firms do hire Africans, they have been accused of subjecting them to substandard working conditions and of violating labor laws. [23] In a direct comparison of Russian and Chinese influence in Africa, the latter is clearly superior. Russia’s reservoir of historical goodwill has proven no match for its present day activities, which often end up hurting ordinary Africans far more than they help them. And it has proven no match for China’s activities, which despite shortcomings are generally seen in a positive light. In fact, one African scholar noted that Russia is so far behind China in Africa that it risks not being taken seriously. For a government and people obsessed with being acknowledged as a great power, this may be the ultimate insult. [24] [20] [21] [22]
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RUSSIAN AND CHINESE USE OF THE INSTRUMENTS OF POWER IN AFRICA
Having surveyed Russian and Chinese interests and influence in Africa, this paper now moves to an examination of how the two advance those interests and build that influence. Like all states, they do so by using what are commonly known as the instruments of power or instruments of statecraft. Although there are differing definitions of what these instruments are, one common framework lists them as diplomatic, informational, military and economic tools. Analyzing how Moscow and Beijing deploy and use these instruments in Africa can reveal several things. First, it can help us understand the intensity of Russian and Chinese interests in Africa. For example, if a state deploys all four instruments in significant quantities in a certain re- gion, we can infer that this state sees its interests in that region as important or even vital. Examining the instruments of power can also tell us which interests a state sees as most important in a region.
For example, if a state’s security presence in a given region is far higher than the presence of other instruments, we can infer that the state sees this region primarily in terms of its importance to the state’s security interests. Finally, examining how two different states use the instruments of power in a region can reveal clues about which state sees the region as more important.
Of course, instruments of power are rarely deployed individually, but are most often deployed together, as part of a policy or strategy. In statecraft, as E.H. Carr notes, “power is an indivisible whole; one instrument cannot exist for long in the absence of the others.” This paper defines the instruments of power as follows: [25]
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The Diplomatic Instrument represents the power of persuasion. This includes negotiations, oral and written diplomatic communications, as well as the political systems and trajectories of states, including the extent to which their domestic political regime types align. 01. The Informational Instrument encompasses the efforts of governments to disseminate and collect information in an effort to tell a government’s story to an audience with the hope of building support for it. 02. [26, p. 278] [26]
03.
The Military Instrument includes, but is not limited to, the capabilities inherent in the armed forces and other security services of a state. This may or may not include military operations; arms sales, exercises, and military education and training also comprise the military instrument. For this paper, Russian and Chinese security contractors, like Russia’s Africa Corps, are also included in the military instrument. The Economic Instrument leverages a state’s wealth to influence others. In the positive sense this might include trade, economic aid, and foreign direct investment; in the negative sense actions like sanctions, tariffs, embargoes or even blockades (although this also requires use of the military instrument) also qualify as use of the economic instrument. 04. [26, p. 281] [26, p. 277]
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RUSSIA Russia leads with the military instrument in Africa, closely supported by the informational instrument, which it has employed with increasing intensity since its full- scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Moscow often attempts to parlay its military activities into economic gains, but otherwise its economic presence in Africa is small, especially compared to China’s. Moscow’s use of the diplomatic instrument in Africa reflects the fact that the continent is of moderate but rising importance to the Kremlin. As noted, it operates embassies in 39 of Africa’s 54 countries, and as an American diplomat in Kenya noted, even those embassies that Russia does operate tend to be smaller than those of China, the US, or other major powers. With its permanent presence limited, Russia has tried to make [27] up for this with high level diplomatic visits, especially since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who had never visited Africa before 2022, made four visits there in the first 18 months after the war began. In this period he visited Egypt, Congo-Brazzaville, Uganda, Ethiopia, South Africa (twice), Eswatini (Swaziland), Angola, Eritrea, Mali, Mauritania, Sudan, Kenya, Burundi, and Mozambique. Finally, he represented Putin at the August 2023 BRICS Summit in South Africa, which the Russian president skipped due to the arrest warrant issued for him by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Russia’s use of the information instrument has also risen since the start of the war in Ukraine, reflecting Moscow’s desire to see its narrative on the war dominate in the Global South, and its desire to use the Global South to demonstrate that Western attempts to isolate it have failed. Some of Moscow’s use of information is directly tied to the operations of Moscow’s mercenaries, and some is more general in scope and tone. In the former category are information campaigns that have supported Wagner Group deployments in the Central African Republic (CAR), Mali, Sudan, Mozambique, as well as later Africa Corps deployments in Burkina Faso and Niger. These campaigns often merged with existing anti-French and anti-colonial themes, although they also contained pro-Russian talking points. This activity has been amplified by Russian media operations across the Sahel, including the Africa Initiative, which has recruited and trained pro-Russian influencers and journalists from several countries across the region. Themes of Russian information operations in these countries include celebrating military rule, undermining popular support for democracy, and portraying Russia as a trusted partner for Africa. Russia increasingly uses artificial intelligence (AI) to support its information efforts in Africa, using AI-generated videos, fabricated endorsements, and highly coordinated [29] [28]
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Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (@mfa_russia) on X, July 25 2022 — Lavrov arrives in the Republic of the Congo.
Embassy of the Russian Federation in Guinea (@RussieConakry) on X — Lavrov arrives on an official visit to Conakry.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (@mfa_russia) on X — Lavrov arrives in Ouagadougou and meets Burkina Faso’s foreign minister.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (December 19 2025 — Lavrov and Egypt’s FM hold talks on the sidelines of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum.
[30]
social media amplification to raise support for Russia and the regimes it supports. In some cases, this has made leaders like Burkina Faso’s Ibrahim Traore into social media superstars, by “endowing him with impeccable American English and a power of persuasion far exceeding his own.” [31] Other Russian uses of the information instrument include the establishment of “Pushkin Institutes” in Africa and providing free education for thousands of Africans per year. Pushkin Institutes promote Russian language and culture abroad, and Moscow now operates them in 22 of the 54 African countries, up from only three prior to the full- scale invasion of Ukraine. Its offer of free education has likewise risen sharply in the past several years: some 35,000 Africans now study in Russia free of charge. For the current academic year, applicants for these positions rose from 20,000 to 40,000, with Sudan, Guinea, Ghana, and Chad seeing the sharpest increases. Moscow’s military presence in Africa is unconventional and sometimes unacknowledged, but still substantial. Russia maintains no military bases in Africa - although it has been in on again/off again talks with Sudan on the topic for years - and the Russian military is not a major player on the continent. But Moscow uses the military instrument extensively in Africa, in the form of its Africa Corps contingent, which is not formally a part of the Russian military but reliably does the Kremlin’s bidding. In fact, squaring the deniability/control circle was a main reason for the creation of the Africa Corps. For years, Kremlin leaders were comfortable granting the Wagner Group extensive autonomy, for two reasons. First, it allowed the Russian government to deny involvement in the Group’s more heinous activities by claiming it was a private entity. Second, Putin and those around him were confident Putin’s close personal relationship to the Group’s founder Yevgeny Prigozhin would keep it under control. [32]
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These illusions vanished in June 2023, when Prigozhin, angry over what he saw as intentional lack of support from the Ministry of Defense for Wagner operations in Ukraine, led a march on Moscow. Although Prigozhin’s fighters stopped before reaching the Russian capital, they captured the cities of Rostov and Voronezh, shot down at least seven Russian military aircraft, and killed as many as 29 Russian soldiers. This move sealed Prigozhin’s fate - he died two months later in a plane crash almost certainly orchestrated by the Kremlin - and made it clear to Putin that he needed to rein in his mercenary force, lest it become as dangerous to him as it had long been to Russia’s enemies and ordinary people in the places it operated. The solution was the creation of the Russian Africa Corps. While not formally integrated into the Russian military - thus preserving at least a thin veneer of deniability - the Corps is certainly on a shorter leash than was the Wagner Group. Using the same model as did Wagner, Africa Corps provides coup proofing, counterinsurgency and counterterrorism assistance, military training, and disinformation operations to juntas and authoritarian regimes across the region, including Sudan, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Equatorial Guinea. It pioneered many of these techniques in one of the Wagner Group’s first major African interventions, in Libya, where it arrived in 2019. Based on the Libya model, the Africa Corps now engages in ‘limited, flexible, and nominally deniable interventions” meant to “establish influence on the cheap and secure lucrative review streams, such as from gold mining.” Interestingly, the Africa Corps works both sides of the coup issue. As noted, it offers coup proofing to friendly regimes, but has also supported popular movements to overthrow regimes it considers unfriendly (i.e. - those that are pro-Western) and replace them with military juntas. These “popularly-supported coups” are a new phenomenon, one that Russia did not create, but which it is happily taking advantage of. [35] Activity is not the same as effectiveness, and while the Africa Corps has been active in Africa, there are cascading signs that it has been at a minimum ineffective at providing security for hire for its client governments, and may actually be making things worse. Burkina-Faso serves as an example here. Since Russia’s social media star client, President Ibrahim Traore took power in September 2022, insecurity in Burkina Faso has grown more deadly. As an August 2025 report from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies notes, “fatalities linked to militant Islamist group violence have almost tripled in the past three years, reaching 17,775 deaths. This compares to 6,630 deaths in the three-year period prior to Traoré’s coup.” Violence has also expanded geographically under Traore: the same report notes that some 165,000 square kilometers of Burkina-Faso have seen more violence than they did prior to the coup, representing “an intensification of militant Islamist presence in northern Burkina Faso and an expansion westward and southward toward the borders of the coastal West African countries of Benin, Togo, and Côte d’Ivoire.” The effect of this intensification and expansion of violence, which is also happening in other Russian client states like Mali, is likely to damage Russia’s reputation as a security provider on the continent. [37] [36] [33] [34]
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Russia’s economic engagement with Africa is narrow and targeted. It focuses on energy, mining, nuclear power development, and arms sales, with deals often tied to political or security arrangements. Although it boasts multibillion-dollar contracts in the mining and energy sectors, and has signed nuclear cooperation agreements with Egypt and Nigeria Russia's overall economic weight in Africa is paltry. According to 2024 figures, Moscow’s trade with African states totals some $25-30 billion, smaller even than Ukraine’s ($41 billion) and far behind China and the US. Russia barely registers as a provider of foreign direct investment, and arms sales, where the Kremlin once led, have seriously eroded since 2020, dropping Russia to the second-largest supplier to sub- Saharan Africa, behind China. [38] [39]
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CHINA Beijing's use of the instruments of power in Africa is guided by the CCP’s belief in the nexus between security and economic development. With this in mind, China seeks to ensure that insecurity in Africa does not threaten its economic investments, in order to allow those investments to raise the level of economic development in Africa, and thereby contribute to more stable security conditions. Its use of diplomatic and information instruments complement these goals. Although Africa has long been an important diplomatic space for China, it has made a major diplomatic push there over the last several years. As noted, China maintains an embassy in all 54 African states, compared to 39 for Russia. Since 2007, Chinese officials have made some 140 trips to Africa, often tied to Belt and Road Initiative projects. For 36 straight years, the Chinese Foreign Minister has made Africa his first annual trip; this year the trip took place in early January and included stops in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Lesotho. Even with a four year hiatus during the COVID pandemic, China’s President Xi Jinping has visited the continent four times since 2015. The primary institution for China’s relations with Africa is the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), which brings together Chinese and African officials to discuss trade, development, security and other topics of mutual interest. Finally, in line with its belief that development and security are linked, and its BRI priorities, Chinese diplomatic visits occur disproportionately to the poorest African countries. [40] [41]
The center of China’s information strategy in Africa are its Confucius Institutes, some 60 of which operate in 49 African countries. Although they promote Chinese language and culture, the institutes also openly serve Chinese political and economic goals, attracting criticism from both African and Western observers. As one African scholar noted, "They interfere with the academic freedom within universities and indoctrinate students with Chinese political systems that could be seen as authoritarian or undemocratic.” Unsurprisingly, the [42] growth of Confucius Institutes has corresponded with a growth in the number of African students attending Chinese universities, which has risen from less than 2,000 in 2003 to over 81,500 in 2018. [43]
“China seeks to ensure that insecurity in Africa does not threaten its economic investments, in order to allow those investments to raise the level of economic development in Africa, and thereby contribute to more stable security conditions.”
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The framework for China’s security presence in Africa is the GSI, which seeks to offer an alternative model of security to that offered by the US and the West, and to address causes of insecurity that threaten China’s economic interests. The Chinese government articulates the goals of the GSI as presenting Beijing as a “dispute arbiter, architect of new regional security frameworks, and trainer of security professionals and police forces in developing countries.” China has become the dominant seller of military equipment to Africa, overtaking Russia, and selling to some 70% of African militaries, with states like Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Namibia, the Seychelles, Tanzania, and Zambia buying over 90% of their weapons from China. Major items sold include jet trainers, armored personnel carriers, anti-ship missiles, and combat drones. [45] Africa is the location of China’s first overseas military base, opened in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa in 2017, and there have been persistent rumors of another base planned for Equatorial Guinea, on Africa’s Atlantic coast. Having bases in both regions would make sense, given China’s integration of its security and economic goals in Africa. Many of its most important BRI projects are in the Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Guinea, both important trade routes but also both beset by piracy, terrorism, insurgency, and other forms of mass violence. Of course, a base in Equatorial Guinea could also act as a springboard for greater Chinese naval presence in the Atlantic Ocean, something US policymakers greet with alarm. Like Russia, China has a robust private military and security company (PMSC) presence in Africa. But Chinese and Russian PMSCs operate differently and have different goals. Chinese security firms are generally employed to protect Chinese BRI projects and other investments, and most but not all operate unarmed. With over 10,000 Chinese businesses operating in Africa and some one million Chinese living there, the scale of Beijing’s economic presence - and accompanying security vulnerability - is clear. Estimates suggest that some 3200 Chinese PMSC personnel operate overseas, with the vast majority of these in Africa: about 2000 contractors from a single Chinese firm operate in Ethiopia and Kenya alone. The final two forms of Chinese security presence in Africa are its UN peacekeepers and its police forces. Over 80% of Chinese peacekeepers are deployed to Africa, and over 32,000 Chinese soldiers have served in UN missions there, the highest number among permanent members of the UN Security Council. Beijing’s police presence in Africa is less benign, serving largely to keep tabs on Chinese citizens living there, and by agreement with many African countries, to extradite them back to China to face punishment. [49] It is in the use of the economic instrument where China’s presence and power in Africa become clear. By every economic measure, China dwarfs Russia on the continent. Beijing’s engagement is deep, broad, and focused on the long-term with massive investments in infrastructure (BRI), huge trade turnover, and significant foreign direct investment (FDI). Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dominate the construction and telecoms sectors. [44] [46] [47] [48]
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China has been Africa’s largest trading partner since 2009, with trade turnover reaching a record $348 billion in 2025. But trade between the two is unbalanced: China generally imports raw materials like crude oil, copper and cobalt from Africa, and exports finished goods. The trade figures reveal the results of this imbalance, with the continent’s trade deficit with China widening by 64.5% to a record $102 billion in 2025. As they do elsewhere, Chinese imports often compete with locally produced products and drive local manufacturers out of business. Like its trade with Africa, Chinese loans and investment there are a double-edged sword. On one hand, Chinese loans and investment have played a crucial role in addressing Africa’s infrastructure deficits through projects like Kenya’s Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway and the Djibouti-Ethiopia Railway, which have enhanced regional connectivity and trade. Chinese loans are often offered to African countries with few other sources of financing due to their low credit ratings. To protect these somewhat risky investments, Beijing secures its loans by leveraging natural resources such as oil, gas and minerals to mitigate the risk of default. For example, China has taken oil from Sudan, gold from Tanzania and copper from Zambia as compensation for unpaid loans. What it has not yet done in Africa is to seize Chinese-built infrastructure, something Western policymakers routinely warn about. Instead, it has acted like other lenders, scaling back its loans to overly debt-burdened clients, extending payment periods, and sometimes lowering interest rates. But debt to China is still a major concern for many African governments. The top ten African debtor countries owe China some $200 billion collectively. Djibouti, despite not being in the top ten in total debt to China, may be the most debt-distressed African state, owing Beijing some 70% of its annual GDP. Finally, China has been criticized for using mostly Chinese labor and for causing environmental damage in Africa. Chinese-operated mines in Africa, for example, have had “detrimental effects on local ecosystems, including deforestation, soil erosion and water pollution.” [55] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54]
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CONCLUSION
01 02 03
Russia and China are neither partners nor competitors in Africa. Instead, their interaction there can best be described as compartmentalized: each is aware that the other has interests in Africa, and is using a combination of instruments to pursue those interests and build its influence. Rather than formally cooperate or compete, they generally stay out of each other’s way. What cooperation there is, is ad hoc; what competition there is, is limited in scope and has not yet impacted their overall relationship. The two appear to have found an informal division of labor, where China focuses on finances, infrastructure, trade, and technological development, and Russia focuses on arms sales (although China has overtaken it here), regime survival, and parlaying these into what economic gains it can, primarily through resource extraction. This section of this report reviews the main areas of where Russian and Chinese interests converge and diverge, and draws inferences for their overall relationship. A main area where their interests converge is their shared goal of eroding Western influence in Africa. But they diverge over how to do this. China prefers to offer alternative models of governance, development, and security to those offered by the West in the hope that African states will embrace those models and reject Western ones. Russia prefers to undermine Western states and international institutions in Africa without offering alternatives. In essence, China is a builder and Russia is a disruptor in Africa. Their attitudes toward stability in Africa will be an issue they need to manage moving forward. China needs stability for the long-term return on its economic investments there, but Russia foments instability because it provides opportunities for the Africa Corps. China's desire for stability could eventually cause it to resent Russia’s role as an agent of chaos on the continent. As dangerous as Russia’s African escapades might be for China over the long term, they offer some short-term benefits. First, they allow China to retain its image as a win-win partner while Russia pays the reputational and security costs. Next, if chaos drives out Western investment, China stands to gain.
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04 05
There is emerging but still manageable divergence in two other areas: arms sales and resource extraction. In the former area, Russia has historically been the leader but the effects of the Ukraine war and Chinese competition are eroding Moscow’s advantage. The war in Ukraine has revealed the poor performance of Russian military equipment, and sanctions are impacting Russia’s ability to produce enough equipment to both replace its losses in Ukraine and make significant equipment available for foreign customers. China has been touting its equipment as an alternative by noting it is both cheaper and more readily available. In resource extraction, especially mining and energy deals, China usually wins due to superior resources but Russia has been trying to compensate via security-for-resources deals. Perhaps the best way to characterize how Russia and China interact in Africa is to view it through African eyes. As Dr. Paul Tembe, a South African scholar, sees it, the two have a “passive, proxy-type alliance”. He continued by noting that while Beijing and Moscow are not partners in Africa, “at the same time they won’t in the next two decades stab each other in the back.”
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[12] T. Clark, “Opportunity in Africa: Growth Potential Abounds — With the Right Strategy,” Forbes, June 3, 2025. Available: https://www.forbes.com/sites/sap/2025/06/03/opportunity-in-africa-growth-potential-abounds- with-the-right-strategy/ [13] P. Nantulya, “China’s Policing Models Make Inroads in Africa,” Africa Center for Strategic Studies, May 22, 2023. Available: https://africacenter.org/spotlight/chinas-policing-models-make-inroads-in-africa/ [14] C. Qingqing, “China-Africa security forum injects positive energy into global peace,” Global Times, Aug. 28, 2023. Available: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1297125.shtml [15] D. Whitman, “A Movie We’ve Seen Before: Russia’s Pitch for Africa,” Delphi Global Research Center, Jan. 12, 2026. Available: https://www.delphigrc.org/research/a-movie-we-ve-seen-before-russia-s-pitch-for-africa [16] Ibid. [17] Ibid. [18] Ibid. [19] T. Naadi, “Russian mercenaries accused of cold-blooded killings in Mali,” BBC News, Nov. 25, 2025. Available: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crmx7x3yjyko [20] E. Olander, “China Tops Favorability Rankings in Africa, Outpacing U.S. and EU,” China-Global South Project, June 5, 2025. Available: https://chinaglobalsouth.com/2025/06/05/china-most-favored-global-power-in-africa/ [21] “The New Scramble for Africa: How Russia and China Are Reshaping the Continent,” Defense.info, Aug. 31, 2025. Available: https://defense.info/highlight-of-the-week/the-new-scramble-for-africa-how-russia-and-china- are-reshaping-the-continent/ [22] D. W. Bewket, Professor, Addis Ababa University, interview with the author, Aug. 29, 2022. [23] S. Carciotto and R. Chikohomero, “Chinese labour practices in six southern African countries,” Institute for Security Studies, Aug. 2022. Available: https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Mono-207.pdf [24] P. Maluki, Professor, University of Nairobi, interview with the author, Sept. 1, 2022. [25] E. H. Carr, The Twenty Years’ Crisis, 1919–1939, New York: Harper-Collins, 1964. [26] D. R. Worley, Orchestrating the Instruments of Power, Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press, 2015. [27] Diplomat posted to the U.S. Embassy in Nairobi, Kenya, interview with the author, Sept. 2, 2022. [28] B. Bondarev, “Lavrov Returns to Africa,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, vol. 20, no. 91, June 6, 2023. Available: https://jamestown.org/program/lavrov-returns-to-africa/ [29] W. Brown, “The Bear and the Bot Farm: Countering Russian Hybrid Warfare in Africa,” European Council on Foreign Relations, Oct. 22, 2025. Available: https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-bear-and-the-bot-farm-countering-russian-hybrid-warfare-in- africa/
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[30] M. D. Lawal, “Inside the AI-driven propaganda elevating Burkina Faso’s leader,” Dubawa, June 16, 2025. Available: https://dubawa.org/inside-the-ai-driven-propaganda-elevating-burkina-fasos-leader-ibrahim- traore/ [31] D. Whitman, “A Movie We’ve Seen Before.” [32] Ibid. [33] S. D’Urso, “Many Questions Still Unanswered After Wagner’s Attempted ‘March on Moscow’,” The Aviationist, June 27, 2023. Available: https://theaviationist.com/2023/06/27/wagners-march-on-moscow/ [34] F. Wehrey and A. S. Weiss, “The Right Way for America to Counter Russia in Africa,” Foreign Affairs, July 9, 2024. Available: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/africa/right-way-america-counter-russia-africa [35] D. Whitman, “A Movie We’ve Seen Before.” [36] “A Growing Divergence of Security Narratives in Burkina Faso,” Africa Center for Strategic Studies, Aug. 26, 2025. Available: https://africacenter.org/spotlight/security-narratives-burkina-faso/ [37] Ibid. [38] D. Whitman, “A Movie We’ve Seen Before.” [39] I. U. Klyszcz, “Russia-Africa Ties Catch Global Tailwinds in 2025,” Riddle, Dec. 18, 2025. Available: https://ridl.io/russia-africa-ties-catch-global-tailwinds-in-2025/ [40] H. Chen and A. Adebayo, “Wang Yi’s First African Tour After FOCAC9 Sets the Tone for Africa- China Relations in 2025,” The Diplomat, Jan. 13, 2025. Available: https://thediplomat.com/2025/01/wang-yis-first-african-tour-after-focac9-sets-the-tone-for- africa-china-relations-in-2025/ [41] “Wang Yi’s 2026 Africa Tour: Strengthening Strategic Ties,” Beyond the Horizon, Jan. 13, 2026. Available: https://behorizon.org/wang-yis-2026-africa-tour-strengthening-strategic-ties/ [42] M. Schwikowski, “How China promotes its language and culture in Africa,” Deutsche Welle, Sept. 27, 2025. Available: https://www.dw.com/en/how-china-promotes-its-language-and-culture-in-africa/a-74137003 [43] Ibid. [44] M. A. Kuo, “China-Russia Cooperation in Africa and the Middle East,” The Diplomat, Apr. 3, 2023. Available: https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/china-russia-cooperation-in-africa-and-the-middle-east/ [45] “China Becomes Africa’s Top Weapons Supplier, but Motive and Quality Stir Debate,” Africa Defense Forum, July23, 2024. Available: https://adf-magazine.com/2024/07/china-becomes-africas-top-weapons-supplier-but-motive-and- quality-stir-debate/
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[46] O. Eguegu, “China and Equatorial Guinea: Why Their New ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ Matters,” The Diplomat, June 10, 2024. Available: https://thediplomat.com/2024/06/china-and-equatorial-guinea-why-their-new-comprehensive- strategic-partnership-matters/ [47] M. Tanchum, “China’s New Military Base in Africa,” European Council on Foreign Relations, Dec. 14, 2021. Available: https://ecfr.eu/article/chinas-new-military-base-in-africa-what-it-means-for-europe-and-america/ [48] L. Suadoni, “The Discreet Rise of Chinese Private Security Companies,” Atlas Institute of International Affairs, Nov. 30, 2025. Available: https://atlasinstitute.org/the-discreet-rise-of-chinese-private-security-companies-implications- for-africa/ [49] Chen Qingqing, “China-Africa security forum injects positive energy into global peace,” Global Times, August 28, 2023, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1297125.shtml [50] “China’s Export Surge to Africa in 2025 Complicates Efforts to Rebalance Trade,” China-Global South Project, Feb. 9, 2026. Available: https://chinaglobalsouth.com/analysis/the-2025-china-africa-trade-rundown/ [51] “China’s Influence in Africa: Challenges and Strategic Implications,” NATO, n.d. Available: https://nrdc-ita.nato.int/newsroom/insights/chinas-influence-in-africa-challenges-and-strategic- implications [52] “China’s Export Surge to Africa in 2025 Complicates Efforts to Rebalance Trade,” China-Global South Project, Feb. 9, 2026. Available: https://chinaglobalsouth.com/analysis/the-2025-china-africa-trade-rundown/ [53] Ibid. [54] C. Okafor, “Top 10 African countries with the highest debt to China,” Business Insider Africa, Nov. 25, 2024. Available: https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/lifestyle/top-10-african-countries-with-the-highest-debt- to-china/jf5d5fn [55] “China’s Influence in Africa: Challenges and Strategic Implications,” NATO, n.d. Available: https://nrdc-ita.nato.int/newsroom/insights/chinas-influence-in-africa-challenges-and-strategic- implications [56] P. Tembe, Associate Professor, University of South Africa, interview with the author, Aug. 24, 2022.
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