Cynthia D. Penny-Ardinger Jeffrey S. Rosen Samuel D. Snead, MCP, MA John F. von Paris
MEMORANDUM
TO:
MDTA Board
FROM:
Revenue Manager Walter Laun Traffic and Revenue Forecast Update
SUBJECT:
DATE:
November 25, 2025
PURPOSE OF MEMORANDUM To provide the Maryland Transportation Authority (MDTA) Board the annual update to the traffic and revenue (T&R) forecast for all facilities. KEY TAKEAWAYS • The current T&R forecast (FY 2025 – 2031) projects total system revenue (including administrative) will increase by $33.4 million, or 0.6%, when compared to the October 2024 T&R Forecast Update. o The increase in revenue is mainly attributable to increased collections from the Central Collection Unit (CCU) for MDTA’s video tolls and civil penalty fees, partially offset by reduced revenues associated with the revised opening date of the Key Bridge. Other contributors include re-benchmarking the forecast to reflect the latest trends, that include additional transactions on the Intercounty Connector (ICC) and an increase in the average toll rate on the I-95 Express Toll Lanes (ETL). • The November 2025 forecast assumes the Fransis Scott Key Bridge reopens at the end of calendar year 2030, revised from 2028. • The Intercounty Connector (ICC) in-lane revenue is projected to increase compared to the previous forecast. • The I-95 Express Toll Lanes (ETL) in-lane revenue is projected to increase compared to the previous forecast. • Projected administrative toll revenue increased by $104.1 million, or 27.8%, compared to the previous forecast. This increased assumption is in response to the timely submission of MVA and CCU referrals coupled with the resumption of the Maryland State Tax Refund Intercept Program (TRIP)
2310 Broening Highway • Baltimore, MD 21224 • mdta@mdta.maryland.gov • 410.537.1000 • 711 (MD Relay) • mdta.maryland.gov • DriveEzMD.com
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