Chapter 2 Historical Trends
This chapter includes analysis of historical traffic, revenue, and payment type trends of the MDTA facilities. Analysis of traffic trends on other routes in Maryland is also provided for context. Recent historical data is especially important as an input to developing the updated forecast documented in this report. 2.1 Maryland Vehicle Miles Traveled Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) trends were reviewed to better understand the general trends in traffic growth nationally and within Maryland. The Federal Highway Administration develops annual estimates of national and state-wide VMT by roadway type, which have been summarized in Table 2-1 for years 2007 through 2023 for the United States (U.S.) and Maryland. Data was not yet available for 2024. Total VMT growth trends for both Maryland and the U.S. have been generally similar during the Great Recession impacted years (2007 to 2009) and years following (2009 to 2019). In general, the trends indicate that total national and statewide Maryland VMT growth is similar. However, growth on Maryland’s Interstate highways at 0.6 percent per annum was much lower than the U.S. average of 1.5 percent per annum for the period between 2009 and 2019. Growth on the Maryland interstate system is still occurring, albeit at a lower rate than the nation. The percent of total VMT occurring on Interstate routes has remained relatively constant throughout the past 16 years. Approximately 25 percent of national VMT and 30 percent of Maryland VMT are made on interstate routes, which account for 2.5 percent and 3.9 percent of all roads in the nation and Maryland, respectively. In 2020, due to travel restrictions and stay-at-home mandates from the COVID-19 pandemic, interstate VMT in the United States and Maryland declined by 13.1 and 19.1 percent, respectively. In 2021, interstate VMT increased by approximately 13 percent over 2020 levels in both the U.S. and Maryland. The U.S. interstate and total VMT in 2021 were still 1.6 percent below pre- pandemic levels of 2019. Maryland interstate and total VMT recovered to 4.3 and 3.0 percent below 2019 levels. In 2022 and 2023, VMT continued to increase post-pandemic, at a slightly slower rate in Maryland compared to the nationwide average. In 2023, Maryland interstate and total VMT increase by 1.6 and 1.1 percent respectively, whereas nationwide the VMT increase by 1.0 and 1.6 percent for interstate and total, respectively.
2-1
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