Chapter 2 • Historical Trends
2.3 Historical Traffic on Other Major Highways In order to better understand regional traffic growth patterns, historical traffic counts on select competing major routes were reviewed dating back to 2007. These roads include interstates and major highways that compete with or complement the MDTA Legacy facilities. The data presented in this section are based on calendar year average annual daily traffic volumes and associated growth rates at each location. Historical average annual daily traffic volumes and annual growth rates on six Maryland State Highway Authority (MSHA) roadways are presented in Table 2-7 . As shown in Table 2-7, the traffic volumes on the northern region MSHA roadway, US 1 (south of Sandy Hook Road), followed a more positive trend compared to the northern MDTA facilities, with an average annual growth of 1.1 percent between 2009 and 2019. This compares to a transaction growth of 0.4 percent for passenger cars and 0.2 percent for commercial vehicles during this period on the Kennedy highway. Toll increases implemented during this period would contribute to the more modest growth trends on the MDTA facilities. From 2019 to 2024, US 1 grew at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent, indicating recovery from COVID-19 impacts plus some additional growth. The historical average annual daily traffic volumes and annual growth rates for the central region MSHA roadways are represented in Table 2-7 by I-95 (N of MD 100), I-97 (N of MD 176) and I- 695 (E of MD 146), which are all located in the Baltimore area. Traffic volumes on the MSHA facilities decreased by an average of 2.0 percent in 2008, most likely due to the impacts of the Great Recession, while traffic volumes on the Central Region MDTA facilities did not experience significant effects of the recession until 2009 with volumes decreasing by 2.7 percent. Traffic volume decreases on the central MDTA facilities also occurred in years 2012 and 2013 due to toll rate increases. During the 2009 to 2019 post-recession period, traffic has increased by 0.2 percent on the MDTA facilities and 0.5 percent on the MSHA facilities in the central region. In the period from 2019 to 2024, MSHA central facilities decreased by 1.8 percent. A significant decrease on I-97 in 2024 contributes to this decline compared to pre-pandemic levels. The historical average annual daily traffic volumes and annual growth rates on two southern region MSHA roadway is represented by MD 295 (N of MD 100) and US 301 (S of MD 234) in Table 2-7. During the 2009 to 2019 post-recession period, traffic has increased modestly, averaging 0.5 percent per annum on the southern MDTA facilities (Nice/Middleton and Bay Bridges) and 1.3 percent on the combined MSHA facilities. Traffic volume decreases on the southern MDTA facilities occurred in years 2012 and 2013 due to toll rate increases. Following this, both on the MDTA and on the combined Southern Region MSHA facilities, traffic grew at relatively higher levels outside of the pandemic. In the period from 2019 to 2024, the combined southern MSHA roadways declined by 0.2 percent per year, whereas the southern MDTA facilities decreased by 0.6 percent per year.
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