Chapter 3 • Corridor Growth Review
3.2 Recent Growth Trend Explanatory Factors This section provides local explanatory context for traffic trends on the MDTA facilities, specifically focusing on the Port of Baltimore cargo tonnage which impacts commercial vehicle traffic, and BWI airport passenger volumes which impact Intercounty Connector passenger vehicle traffic. 3.2.1 Port of Baltimore Cargo Tons Shipping and port activity were indirectly impacted by the COVID pandemic, although total general cargo tonnage did not materially change relative to historical trends. Port trends are typically correlated with commercial vehicle movements, as ports are intermodal connectors to surface transportation modes. Port of Baltimore activity affects transactions on the MDTA Legacy facilities, particularly at the Central Region facilities. Figure 3-2 compares monthly Port of Baltimore total general cargo tons to total Legacy commercial vehicle (CV) in-lane traffic from July 2018 through June 2025. Tonnage data are sourced from the Maryland Department of Transportation, Port Administration (MPA). Port of Baltimore exhibited some initial cargo declines early in the pandemic (April and May 2020), which rebounded during the summer, and returned to typical levels and monthly fluctuations by the second half of 2022. Legacy facility CV transactions and port tonnage mostly paralleled 12- month moving averages; however, the monthly correlation is relatively weak. Port volumes almost entirely ceased in April and May 2024 when the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapsed, effectively cutting off the Patapsco shipping channel and Port cargo vessel access. As debris was mostly cleared by June, some cargo activity resumed, with levels less than half historical averages. By late 2024, monthly cargo tonnage resumed historical levels. Even with the second Trump administration’s various on-off tariff impositions, volumes in the first half of 2025 approximated historical levels, albeit with more pronounced monthly volatility.
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