Chapter 3 • Corridor Growth Review
Figure 3-5 shows annual unemployment rates for Maryland’s regions. In every year, Southern Maryland and Washington Suburban exhibited lower unemployment rates than elsewhere; unsurprising given the federal (D.C.) jobs concentrated there. Conversely, the Lower Eastern Shore and Western Maryland exhibited relatively higher unemployment rates than elsewhere. Annual unemployment peaked between 2009 and 2011, during and following the Great Recession, reaching 11.3% in the Lower Eastern Shore, 9.5% in Western Maryland, 8.9% in the Upper Eastern Shore, and 8.3% in Baltimore. In the Washington Suburban region, unemployment peaked at 6.7% while Maryland’s statewide rate reached 7.8%. Following those recessionary peak years, unemployment rates steadily declined to historically low levels in 2019. However, similar to the national level, COVID-19 reversed that trend quickly, with extraordinary unemployment rates peaking in the second-and-third quarters of 2020, followed by a steady decline through 2023. Unemployment rate remained relatively low by historical precedent in 2024, albeit increased slightly from 2023. On an annual basis, 2024 resulted in unemployment rates ranging between very low levels of 2.9% and 3.6% for the state regions.
Figure 3-5 Historical Unemployment Rates (Maryland Regions)
Forecast National unemployment rates in 2020 spiked from COVID-19 and subsequently declined to near- historical lows. Unemployment rate projections from the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve (FOMC) expect the annual rates to increase slightly in 2025 through 2026 or 2027, mostly stemming from Trump administration tariff policies, a slowing in economic activity observed in the first half 2025, and other geopolitical uncertainties. In the mid- to long-term, national unemployment rates are expected to hover in the low-to-mid 4.0%, per Figure 3-6 .
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