Chapter 3 • Corridor Growth Review
Forecast Table 3-8 provides real personal income per capita forecasts. According to WP25, national growth is projected at 1.6% CAGR between 2024-2034. The Mid-Atlantic, South Atlantic, Maryland, and sub-state regions are expected to exhibit similar growth patterns, ranging between 1.4% and 1.7%. Maryland’s SDC forecasts a relatively slower growth than WP25, with decelerating growth below 1.0% CAGR; however, the data are outdated, from 2015.
Table 3-8 Forecast Real Personal Income Per Capita Growth
Historical
WP25
MD SDC
Geography
'14-'24 '24-'29 '29-'34 '24-'34 '24-'29 '29-'34 '24-'34
United States Mid Atlantic South Atlantic
2.0% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% - 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% - 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% -
- - -
- - -
Maryland
1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 2.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9%
Baltimore
Lower Eastern Shore Southern Maryland Upper Eastern Shore Washington Suburban Western Maryland
3.3.5 Gross Domestic/Regional Product Gross domestic product (national level) and gross regional product (state- and county-level) measure the value of all goods and services produced within a geographic area and are general indicators of a region’s economic activity. Historical Historical real gross domestic product (GDP) and gross regional product (GRP), in real 2024$ 5 , are presented in Table 3-9 . Real GDP grew at 2.5% CAGR between 2014-2024, and a relatively large 2.2% annual decline in 2020 from COVID-19 effectively reset the national economy to 2018 levels. However, 2021 rebounded beyond pre-COVID 2019 levels and GDP grew steadily since. Overall, 2014-2024 growth in the Mid-Atlantic was 2.9%, and the South Atlantic was 1.7% annually. At 1.6%, Maryland’s real GRP historical growth rate was slightly more than half the U.S. Data in Tables 3-2 and 3-4 showed in 2024, Maryland comprised 9.0% of the South Atlantic’s population and employment, respectively. Table 3-9 shows that Maryland accounted for 13.0% of the South Atlantic’s real GRP. Within Maryland, the sub-state regions of Baltimore and Washington Suburban accounted for 87.8% of Maryland’s real GRP in 2024.
5 BEA provides real GDP and GRP in 2017$; dollars are inflated to 2024$ using WP25’s PCE index. BEA provided recent county-level data through 2023; 2024 county data are based on WP25’s growth.
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