Chapter 3 • Corridor Growth Review
Table 3-11 provides detail on short-term GDP outlook for 2025, 2026, and 2027 (as available), sourced from various private and public sector agencies, and is organized from most optimistic to most pessimistic for 2025. As shown, most forecasters expect continued growth in 2025, albeit at a decelerated pace of 1.5%, with an average of 1.7% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027.
Table 3-11 Forecast Short-Term Real GDP Growth
Source
Release Date 2025 2026 2027
Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.
July 21, 2025 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
International Monetary Fund (IMF): World Economic Outlook
April 22, 2025 1.8% 1.7% 2.0%
PNC Financial Services Group
July 3, 2025 1.7% 1.5% 1.9%
TD Economics
June 17, 2025 1.7% 2.1% #N/A
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
June 25, 2025 1.6% 1.5% #N/A
Conference Board
July 11, 2025 1.6% 1.4% #N/A
Bank of Montreal (BMO) Capital Markets Economics
July 25, 2025 1.5% 1.5% #N/A
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Economics
July 11, 2025 1.5% 1.3% #N/A
ScotiaBank Global Economics
July 17, 2025 1.5% 1.5% #N/A
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Survey of Professional Forecasters*
May 16, 2025 1.4% 1.6% 2.2%
University of Michigan: Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE)
May 16, 2025 1.4% 1.6% 2.2%
World Bank
June 27, 2025 1.4% 1.6% 1.9%
Energy Information Administration (EIA): Short-Term Energy Outlook
July 8, 2025 1.4% 1.9% #N/A
Federal Reserve Bank: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
June 18, 2025 1.4% 1.6% 1.8%
Wells Fargo Economics Group
July 10, 2025 1.4% 1.9% #N/A
National Association of Realtors/Fannie Mae
July 11, 2025 1.3% 2.3% #N/A
National Association for Business Economics (NABE)*
June 2, 2025 1.3% 1.4% #N/A
Average
1.5% 1.7% 2.0%
Figure 3-7 shows real GDP historical growth from 2010-2024 and forecasted growth for about the next decade by the CBO, FOMC, and WP25. In 2025/6, the forecasts range between 1.4% and 2.1% growth. After that, all sources forecast an expected convergence somewhat below 2.0% into the future, a slight deceleration from long-term historical averages.
3-16
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