MDTA Board Meeting Materials

Chapter 3 • Corridor Growth Review

Table 3-11 provides detail on short-term GDP outlook for 2025, 2026, and 2027 (as available), sourced from various private and public sector agencies, and is organized from most optimistic to most pessimistic for 2025. As shown, most forecasters expect continued growth in 2025, albeit at a decelerated pace of 1.5%, with an average of 1.7% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027.

Table 3-11 Forecast Short-Term Real GDP Growth

Source

Release Date 2025 2026 2027

Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.

July 21, 2025 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%

International Monetary Fund (IMF): World Economic Outlook

April 22, 2025 1.8% 1.7% 2.0%

PNC Financial Services Group

July 3, 2025 1.7% 1.5% 1.9%

TD Economics

June 17, 2025 1.7% 2.1% #N/A

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

June 25, 2025 1.6% 1.5% #N/A

Conference Board

July 11, 2025 1.6% 1.4% #N/A

Bank of Montreal (BMO) Capital Markets Economics

July 25, 2025 1.5% 1.5% #N/A

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Economics

July 11, 2025 1.5% 1.3% #N/A

ScotiaBank Global Economics

July 17, 2025 1.5% 1.5% #N/A

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Survey of Professional Forecasters*

May 16, 2025 1.4% 1.6% 2.2%

University of Michigan: Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE)

May 16, 2025 1.4% 1.6% 2.2%

World Bank

June 27, 2025 1.4% 1.6% 1.9%

Energy Information Administration (EIA): Short-Term Energy Outlook

July 8, 2025 1.4% 1.9% #N/A

Federal Reserve Bank: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

June 18, 2025 1.4% 1.6% 1.8%

Wells Fargo Economics Group

July 10, 2025 1.4% 1.9% #N/A

National Association of Realtors/Fannie Mae

July 11, 2025 1.3% 2.3% #N/A

National Association for Business Economics (NABE)*

June 2, 2025 1.3% 1.4% #N/A

Average

1.5% 1.7% 2.0%

Figure 3-7 shows real GDP historical growth from 2010-2024 and forecasted growth for about the next decade by the CBO, FOMC, and WP25. In 2025/6, the forecasts range between 1.4% and 2.1% growth. After that, all sources forecast an expected convergence somewhat below 2.0% into the future, a slight deceleration from long-term historical averages.

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