Chapter 3 • Corridor Growth Review
Figure 3-7 Forecast Mid-Term Real GDP Growth
3.3.6 Inflation Comparing inflation rates with future toll policy plans can indicate the relative real cost of tolls over time. For example, if toll rates are unchanged during an inflation period, the real toll costs become relatively less expensive. Historical From 2000-2024, the national inflation rate 6 via the BLS averaged 2.6%, ranging from a high of 8.0% recently in 2022 to a low of -0.4% in 2009. Figure 3-8 shows that inflation rates in the Northeast, 7 South, 8 and Washington DC MSA 9 closely tracked the U.S. rate. Although inflation was quite high since 2021 as a function of COVID-19 related factors (pent up demand, supply restrictions due to labor shortages, supply chain restrictions, etc.), the FED FOMC has implemented monetary tightening policies aimed at curtaining further inflation and has had some success in 2023 and into 2024. In 2024, inflation averaged 3.0%, still higher than the targeted annual 2.0%. Preliminary estimates for the first months in 2025 exhibit stubborn inflation trends, declining to 2.3% in April, but increasing back close to 3.0% in the subsequent months, mostly relating to administration policies, such as tariffs.
6 Measured by the Consumer Price Index for urban consumers (CPI-U). 7 Northeast census defined as CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, and VT. 8 South census defined as AR, AL, DE, DC, FL, GA, KY, LA, MD, MS, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX, VA, and WV. 9 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-MD-VA-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area.
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