Chapter 3 • Corridor Growth Review
Figure 3-8 Historical Inflation (CPI-U)
Forecast Figure 3-9 shows the national inflation forecasts by the CBO and FOMC. In 2025, the CBO expected national inflation to reduce further to around 2.2%; however, that source released in January, prior to the new administration and the accompanying tariff policies resulting in higher than expected inflation. FOMC measures inflation via the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index, which closely parallels the CPI-U measure and expects 3.0% in 2025, followed by a reduction to close to the official 2.0% target (that is, monetary policy will work as expected).
Figure 3-9 Forecast Inflation (CPI-U)
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