Chapter 3 • Corridor Growth Review
3.3.7 Fuel Prices Fuel prices are another important variable related to traffic forecasting. Fuel price increases beyond inflation leads to increasing vehicle operating cost and generally less travel, including less travel on toll facilities. In the reverse, declining fuel prices results in generally more travel. Such divergences and behavioral responses are typically short-lived (within a year). Historical Figure 3-10 illustrates the monthly crude oil 10 and retail gasoline prices 11 from 2000 to mid- 2025. The price data in Figure 3-10 are shown in nominal dollars (i.e., current dollars) 12 and are measured by price per barrel (crude oil) and price per gallon (gasoline). U.S. gasoline prices ranged from a low of $1.13 per gallon in December 2001 to a high of $5.03 per gallon in June 2022. Monthly gasoline since declined to around $3.30. Retail gasoline prices in the Central Atlantic 13 and Lower Atlantic 14 generally tracked national prices, with the Central Atlantic typically 1.9% higher and the Lower Atlantic 3.6% lower.
Figure 3-10 Historical Fuel Prices (Current $)
Gasoline retail prices generally mirrors crude oil prices since crude oil historically accounted for approximately 50% of gasoline’s production costs. Figure 3-10 shows that crude oil ranged from $16.55 in April 2020 to $133.88 in June 2008, a with some pronounced volatility in certain months attributable to various reasons (recessions, OPEC, hurricanes, supply/storage shortages, etc.).
10 Cushing OK WTI (West Texas Intermediate) spot price per barrel, free on-board delivery. 11 Retail price per gallon of unleaded gasoline, all grades, all formulations. 12 2000 data are presented in 2000 dollars, 2001 data in 2001 dollars, etc.
13 Central Atlantic includes DE, DC, MD, NJ, NY and PA. 14 Lower Atlantic includes FL, GA, NC, SC, VA and WV.
3-19
Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online