Chapter 4 Forecasts by Facility
This chapter summarizes the development of the forecasts of future year transactions and toll revenue for the MDTA system. Separate sections and discussions are provided for the overall assumptions, the Legacy facilities, ICC, I-95 ETLs, and other revenue. The 10-year annual forecast results by facility through FY 2035 are included in this chapter. Monthly forecasts for FY 2026 and FY 2027 are also included. 4.1 Assumptions Transaction and revenue forecasts were predicated upon the following basic assumptions, which are considered reasonable by CDM Smith for purposes of the forecast:
1. The MDTA toll facilities and approach roads will continue to be well-maintained and effectively signed;
2. No competing highway projects other than those identified in this report will be constructed or significantly improved during the forecast period;
3. MDTA will continue to operate within its business rules and practices;
4. For the purposes of this forecast, it is assumed that no toll rate or toll schedule adjustments will be made during the forecasting period. Chapter 1 presents the assumed toll schedule;
5. Annual revenue estimates are expressed in future year dollars (nominal);
6. No major recession, natural disasters, future pandemics, or other significant exogenous events will occur that would significantly reduce travel in the region;
7. Socioeconomic growth, including related to population and employment, will occur as presented in this study; and
8. Motor fuel will remain in adequate supply, and future price increases will not significantly exceed the long-term rate of inflation.
Any significant departure from these basic assumptions could materially affect forecasted transactions and toll revenue.
Detailed Assumptions In addition to the basic assumptions listed above, several other more specific assumptions were made as provided in Table 4-1 .
4-1
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