Chapter 4 • Forecasts by Facility
For purposes of budgeting and the tracking of actual versus forecasted transactions and revenue, monthly forecasts of transaction and toll revenue were developed for FY 2026 and FY 2027. Table 4-4 provides the forecasted monthly transactions and Table 4-5 provides the forecasted monthly toll revenue for the total Legacy system. Additionally, to support ongoing efforts related to the Key Bridge collapse and the impacts on MDTA revenue, Table 4-6 provides the estimated lost revenue throughout the 10-year forecast period due to the bridge collapse. In order to estimate this value, a hypothetical forecast was created assuming the Key Bridge collapse did not occur. This forecast was then compared to the forecast presented in Table 4-2 and Table 4-3 to estimate the toll revenue lost strictly from the collapse of the bridge. As shown in the table, the lost revenue from ranges from $9.3 million in FY 2024 to $36.1 million in FY 2030. The combined lost revenue for all years is $240.1 million. In addition to the lost toll revenue, $14.8 million is estimated to be lost in the other revenue category, yielding a combined revenue impact of $257.9 million. The combined lost revenue impact is higher than the lost revenue estimated in the September 2024 forecast because of the revised diversion impacts and schedule for the reopening of the Key Bridge, which was pushed out two years.
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