Chapter 4 • Forecasts by Facility
4.3 Intercounty Connector 4.3.1 Forecast Methodology and Assumptions
Base ICC annual collected trip and toll revenue forecasts were made using a review and analysis of the most recent historical trends (pre-pandemic) and the latest fiscal year and adjusting base growth rates estimated in the most recent previous ICC forecast update, as necessary. Estimated trips and revenue reflects collected toll revenue by MDTA after assumed reductions due to leakage of unbillable and unpaid trips. The forecasts reflect the assumptions listed in Section 4.1 , including those listed in Table 4-1 related to MDTA business rules. Related to other projects that may potentially impact the ICC, previous sketch-level modeling of the impacts of the Maryland I-495 and I-270 Managed Lanes Traffic Relief Plan (TRP) on the ICC showed the potential for impacts on ICC traffic. On May 12, 2021 the recommended preferred alternative (RPA) for the TRP program was announced to be American Legion Bridge I-270 to I-370 (Phase 1 South). This RPA focuses solely on building a new American Legion Bridge and delivering two high occupancy toll (HOT) managed lanes in each direction on Phase 1 South. No action was taken on the remainder of I-495 east of the I-270 eastern spur. Based on sketch-level modeling, Phase 1 South is not anticipated to have any negative impacts on the ICC forecast projections and could instead have a positive impact. In the future should other phases of the TRP program advance, the potential impacts would need to be monitored. Sketch-level modeling has shown that the ICC appeared to be negatively impacted by priced managed lanes on the I-495 north beltway between I-270 and I-95, as this section of I-495 is parallel to and serves as an alternative route to the ICC for some trips. 4.3.2 Forecast Results Table 4-7 provides the Intercounty Connector actual collected trips and revenue for FY 2025 and the forecasted collected trips and revenue for FY 2026 through FY 2035, by ETC and video. ETC transactions and revenue are both forecasted to increase in FY 2026, whereas video transactions are forecasted to decrease as older transactions dissipate. Latest daily in-lane traffic trends show the recovery from the pandemic for commuters has leveled off in the most recent fiscal year, so no additional recovery beyond normal growth was assumed in the forecast. For purposes of budgeting and the tracking of actual versus forecasted transactions and revenue, monthly forecasts of transaction and toll revenue were developed for FY 2026 and FY 2027. Table 4-8 presents the Intercounty Connector monthly forecasted trips and collected toll revenue for FY 2026 and FY 2027.
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