Chapter 4 • Forecasts by Facility
4.4 I-95 ETLs 4.4.1 Forecast Methodology and Assumptions The I-95 ETL forecasts were made using a spreadsheet modeling methodology. To update the I-95 model for this forecast, a re-benchmarking was performed based on the latest collected transactions and revenue data to refine inputs such as E-ZPass market share and vehicle class distribution. Additionally, the first portion of the northbound extension opened in December 2024 and revisions were made to account for the updated average toll shown in the actual data thus far. The daily data was used to compare the raw traffic growth to the growth forecast assumed in the model. Once the spreadsheet model was updated, it was used to develop the 10-year forecast. The I-95 ETL forecast used the assumptions described in Section 4.1 and the assumption of the second phase of the northbound extension. The first extension which opened in FY 2025 was through MD 152, and the remaining extension to MD 24 will open in FY 2028. The second phase includes widening I-95 to accommodate two ETL lanes as well as I-695 direct connectors as detailed in the construction impacts discussion within Section 4.2 . A schematic showing the I-95 ETL extensions is included in Chapter 1 . A baseline growth forecast was applied to estimate future volumes on the corridor. Based on the calibrated settings within the model, the future year models estimated what percent of traffic will choose to use the ETLs based on capacity, estimated future speeds within the corridor, value of time, toll rates, and travel time reliability.
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