MEMORANDUM
TO:
MDTA Board
ROM:
Chief Financial Officer Deborah E. Sharpless Deputy Director of Finance Allen W. Garman Fiscal Year 2026-2031 Financial Forecast
SUBJECT:
DATE:
November 25, 2025
PURPOSE OF MEMORANDUM To request approval of the fiscal year (FY) 2026-2031 financial forecast. KEY POINTS • The Maryland Transportation Authority (MDTA) remains in compliance with its financial goals and legal standards through FY 2027. • The financial forecast is a comprehensive update that incorporates: o Independently developed Traffic and Revenue Forecast issued November 2025, incorporating Francis Scott Key (Key) Bridge target reopening December 2030. o The Final FY 2026-2031 Consolidated Transportation Program (CTP), including the top end of the current budget estimate for the Key Bridge Rebuild to reflect progress on the Progressive Design Build contract. o The Preliminary FY 2027 Operating Budget. • Key Bridge Rebuild costs are modeled with federal reimbursement 1 , net of insurance proceeds. The bridge cost, construction schedule, and reimbursement speed impact the forecast primarily in the form of intermediate-term interest only financing costs that may exceed $200 million. • Based on current forecast estimates, beginning in FY 2028, a systemwide toll increase will be necessary to maintain 2.0 times debt service coverage throughout the remainder of the FY 2026-2031 program period. Tolls were last increased in FY 2014, with the revenue increase partially reduced by toll rate reductions in FY 2016.
1 Title 23 U.S.C, Section 125 (2025 Federal Highway Administration, Emergency Relief Program)
2310 Broening Highway • Baltimore, MD 21224 • mdta@mdta.maryland.gov • 410.537.1000 • 711 (MD Relay) • mdta.maryland.gov • DriveEzMD.com
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