Fiscal Year 2026-2031 Financial Forecast Page Two SUMMARY This forecast includes the Fall 2025 Traffic and Revenue (T&R) Forecast Update, the Final FY 2026 - 2031 CTP, and the Preliminary FY 2027 Operating Budget. The forecast also incorporates intermediate-term borrowings to align with anticipated federal reimbursement cashflows for the Key Bridge Rebuild. The summary table below shows the MDTA’s adherence to its financial goals and requirements throughout the forecast period. (see financial forecast attachment) Financial Metrics Requirement Current Forecast Period (FY 2026 – 2031) Rate Covenant ≥ 1.0 Requirement met through FY 2030; low of 0.9 in FY 2031 Debt Service Coverage ≥ 2.0 Requirement met through FY 2027; low of 1.2 in FY 2031 Unencumbered Cash ≥ $400M Requirement met throughout the forecast period Debt Outstanding < $4.0B Bonding limit exceeded in FY 2029 2 ANALYSIS The key component comparisons between the current 6-year forecast and June 2025 forecast are: • Total revenue : Total revenue remains relatively flat throughout the FY 2026 – 2031 forecast period, declining by a cumulative $2.2 million. The decline in total revenue is primarily attributed to a $71.1 million decrease in in-lane toll revenue caused by the shift in the reopening date of the Key Bridge Rebuild offset by a $69.6 million increase in toll administrative revenue mostly due to improved Central Collections Unit collections. • Operating budget expenses : Operating budget expenses decrease by $33.8 million throughout the 6-year forecast period. The decrease is primarily attributed to a preliminary FY 2027 operating budget growth rate that is less than the assumed growth rate in the prior forecast. • Capital budget expenses : Capital budget expenses increase by $3.4 billion compared to the Draft FY 2026-2031 CTP. The budget range for the Key Bridge Rebuild was updated with the design progress and has not been publicly available since the original preliminary estimate prepared within two weeks of the bridge collapse. For financial forecasting purposes, it is prudent to model the high end of the cost range. Aside from the net increase in the Key Bridge Rebuild project, the other components of the CTP are essentially unchanged over the six-year program period. • Debt issuances : Revenue bond issuances increase by $700.1 million throughout the forecast period, primarily due to intermediate-term financings for the FSK Bridge Rebuild prior to federal reimbursements that are modeled with lag. • Debt Service: Debt service increases by $81.5 during the forecast period due to the intermediate-term, interest-only financings for the FSK Bridge Rebuild project.
2 A departmental bill increasing the bond cap to $5 billion will be introduced during the 2026 legislative session.
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