Fiscal Year 2026-2031 Financial Forecast Page Three
• Insurance Funds: Of the $350 million of insurance proceeds, $25 million was used for federally eligible debris and salvage costs and the remaining $325 million is currently being spent on federally eligible construction costs. • Federal Funds: Consistent with the State’s request, the federal government has appropriated $217 million in funds for the Key Bridge Rebuild. Federal reimbursements are conservatively modeled with one-year lags in the FY 2027- 2033 period. The forecast incorporates full federal reimbursement. Ineligible project expenses may be incorporated into future forecasts as these expenses are known. • Toll increase : Based on the current forecast estimates, beginning in FY 2028, a systemwide toll increase will be necessary to maintain 2.0 times debt service coverage throughout the remainder of the FY 2026-2031 forecast period. Forecast Model Inputs • Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast: CDM Smith Fall 2025 Update Report • Final FY 2026 – 2031 CTP • FY 2027 Preliminary Operating Budget with adjusted growth rate factor in FY 2028 and FY 2029 for vehicle purchases Evaluation Criteria Adherence to MDTA goals and policies: • >$400 million unrestricted cash • >2.0 debt service coverage • Rate covenant ratio >1.0 sum of 120% debt service plus deposits to M&O Reserve • Debt outstanding < $4 billion (Debt limit increase is needed beginning in FY 2029) • Forecast tests the need for potential future toll increases. (Systemwide toll increases are needed beginning in FY 2028) ATTACHMENT • Financial Forecast
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