Chapter 3 • Corridor Growth Review
Table 3-6 provides additional detail on the short-term unemployment outlook for 2025, 2026, and 2027 (as available), sourced from a wide variety of professional SED forecasters. The table is organized from most optimistic to most pessimistic forecasts for 2025. Data were compiled in August 2025 with most forecasters publishing data between June and July; the 2025 forecasts are narrowly ranging from 4.2% to 4.5%, averaging 4.3% and then rising to 4.5% in 2026.
Figure 3-6 Forecast U.S. Unemployment Rate
Table 3-6 Short-Term Forecast U.S. Unemployment Rate
Source
Release Date 2025 2026 2027 April 22, 2025 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% July 3, 2025 4.2% 4.5% 4.3% July 10, 2025 4.2% 4.3% #N/A July 11, 2025 4.2% 4.3% #N/A July 11, 2025 4.2% 4.4% #N/A June 25, 2025 4.2% 4.3% #N/A May 16, 2025 4.3% 4.8% 4.7% July 8, 2025 4.3% 4.6% #N/A May 16, 2025 4.3% 4.5% 4.6% June 17, 2025 4.3% 4.3% #N/A July 11, 2025 4.3% 4.5% #N/A July 25, 2025 4.3% 4.6% #N/A July 17, 2025 4.4% 4.7% #N/A June 18, 2025 4.5% 4.5% 4.4%
International Monetary Fund (IMF): World Economic Outlook
PNC Financial Services Group Wells Fargo Economics Group
Conference Board
National Association of Realtors/Fannie Mae
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) University of Michigan: Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) Energy Information Administration (EIA): Short-Term Energy Outlook Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Survey of Professional Forecasters*
TD Economics
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Economics
Bank of Montreal (BMO) Capital Markets Economics
ScotiaBank Global Economics
Federal Reserve Bank: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
Average
4.3% 4.5% 4.4%
3-12
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