Chapter 4 • Forecasts by Facility
Table 4-1 Detailed Forecast Assumptions
Assumptions related to the construction projects listed in Table 4-1 are discussed in more detail later in this chapter. 4.2 Legacy System This section provides an overview of the development of the traffic and toll revenue forecasts for the Legacy system. The inputs to the forecast included toll rates by payment method, traffic growth forecasts, E-ZPass ® participation percentages, and the impacts associated with planned roadway improvements on the Legacy facilities. 4.2.1 Forecast Methodology Econometric models were developed for the Legacy system traffic growth forecasts as detailed in in the report Maryland Transportation Authority FY 2023 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast Update . The econometric models sought to establish correlative relationships between various socioeconomic independent variables (such as population, employment, GRP, etc.) and the dependent variable, transactions. The traffic growth used in this current study is based on the growth from the econometric analysis with adjustments as necessary to account for the most recent traffic and economic trends related to inflation and gas prices, long-term pandemic-related commuting trend changes, as well as construction impacts summarized in the subsequent section. Passenger car and commercial vehicle transactions were forecasted independently by facility using these growth rates and by benchmarking to actual FY 2025 trends. Assumptions including those related to the Key Bridge collapse, construction impacts, and NOTD payment rates were then applied to the estimated normal growth rates. The end-product of the model was a baseline 10-year forecast of transactions and revenue by facility, by vehicle class (passenger cars and commercial vehicles), and by method of payment.
4-2
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